1U Tyler Anderson (LAA) under 17.5 outs (-139) available at Caesars sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -145 odds. Also is available at Bet365 for -130 odds if you have access to them. This is a collab bet with @FastMoneyLabs on Twitter, shoot him a follow!
Tyler Anderson has been nothing short of a disappointment following his offseason signing with the Angels. Following a career year with the Dodgers, the other Los Angeles team swooped in to pay him a shade under $40 million for the next 3 seasons of pitching. The veteran southpaw is now on his 5th team in the last 4 seasons and is struggling mightily to find his footing with his new franchise. He essentially downgraded his entire repertoire while losing command and seemingly his confidence.
Anderson has a 5.47 ERA with his 5.35 FIP not looking much better. His 59.8% first pitch strike rate is a career worst mark and a below league average mark for the first time in his career while his pitches are being thrown in the zone 4.8% less than last season. He has always been a pitcher who thrives when able to command the zone and locate his pitches, but that hasn't been the case this season. Anderson has seen a 7.2% drop in his chase rate while his chase contact rate allowed is 4% higher than average. The Cubs, his opponent tonight, chase at the 9th lowest rate in baseball. They are a patient group with their 4.12 pitches per plate appearance ranking 0.11 more than any other team. Against right-handed pitching they walk at the 3rd highest rate (10.1%) while also striking out at the 7th highest clip (24.1%.) It is impossible to strikeout or walk in less than 3 or 4 pitches, and typically both events take far more than that.
They aren't just a long at bat, however, as the Cubs actually produce very well against southpaw pitching this season. Over the course of the season, they rank 4th in wOBA, 7th in ISO, and have a 118 wRC+. Even in the last 30 days against lefties they rank 10th in wOBA with a 114 wRC+. Chicago also has the 7th lowest ground ball rate against left-handed pitching which is huge for this play given Anderson's low 33.7% ground ball rate. Fewers balls on the ground should reduce the chances of double plays. Anderson sees his 56.4% ground ball vs LHB drop to 28.5% against RHB this season, while his .376 wOBA, .229 ISO, and 13.4% K% against righties are all putrid marks. The Cubs crush lefties because of their ability to stack the lineup with 9 right-handed bats, and today's projected lineup calls for exactly that.
Anderson had been held under this line in 6 of 10 starts this season while failing to even enter the field of play for the 6th inning 5 of those times. The Angels bullpen is rested following an off day and Anderson shouldn't see more than 90 pitches or so in this contest, especially if he is struggling. The left-hander uses primarily a 3-pitch mix of his 4-seamer, changeup and cutter. The Cubs are able to damage against each of these 3 offerings. His 4-seamer is getting wrecked with a .447 wOBA and .638 SLG while Chicago ranks 3rd in SLG against left-handed 4-seamers this season. The Cubs also rank 4th in RV/100 against the changeup and 2nd against the cutter this year. They have faced 18 left-handed starting pitchers this season with 14 of them falling short of this 17.5 lin. Blake Snell did exceed this mark last night but it took 109 pitches and some help from Phil Cuzzi behind the plate. Look for the Cubs to give Anderson a tough outing tonight.
1U Tyler Anderson (LAA) under 17.5 outs (-139) available at Caesars sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -145 odds. Also is available at Bet365 for -130 odds if you have access to them. This is a collab bet with @FastMoneyLabs on Twitter, shoot him a follow!
Tyler Anderson has been nothing short of a disappointment following his offseason signing with the Angels. Following a career year with the Dodgers, the other Los Angeles team swooped in to pay him a shade under $40 million for the next 3 seasons of pitching. The veteran southpaw is now on his 5th team in the last 4 seasons and is struggling mightily to find his footing with his new franchise. He essentially downgraded his entire repertoire while losing command and seemingly his confidence.
Anderson has a 5.47 ERA with his 5.35 FIP not looking much better. His 59.8% first pitch strike rate is a career worst mark and a below league average mark for the first time in his career while his pitches are being thrown in the zone 4.8% less than last season. He has always been a pitcher who thrives when able to command the zone and locate his pitches, but that hasn't been the case this season. Anderson has seen a 7.2% drop in his chase rate while his chase contact rate allowed is 4% higher than average. The Cubs, his opponent tonight, chase at the 9th lowest rate in baseball. They are a patient group with their 4.12 pitches per plate appearance ranking 0.11 more than any other team. Against right-handed pitching they walk at the 3rd highest rate (10.1%) while also striking out at the 7th highest clip (24.1%.) It is impossible to strikeout or walk in less than 3 or 4 pitches, and typically both events take far more than that.
They aren't just a long at bat, however, as the Cubs actually produce very well against southpaw pitching this season. Over the course of the season, they rank 4th in wOBA, 7th in ISO, and have a 118 wRC+. Even in the last 30 days against lefties they rank 10th in wOBA with a 114 wRC+. Chicago also has the 7th lowest ground ball rate against left-handed pitching which is huge for this play given Anderson's low 33.7% ground ball rate. Fewers balls on the ground should reduce the chances of double plays. Anderson sees his 56.4% ground ball vs LHB drop to 28.5% against RHB this season, while his .376 wOBA, .229 ISO, and 13.4% K% against righties are all putrid marks. The Cubs crush lefties because of their ability to stack the lineup with 9 right-handed bats, and today's projected lineup calls for exactly that.
Anderson had been held under this line in 6 of 10 starts this season while failing to even enter the field of play for the 6th inning 5 of those times. The Angels bullpen is rested following an off day and Anderson shouldn't see more than 90 pitches or so in this contest, especially if he is struggling. The left-hander uses primarily a 3-pitch mix of his 4-seamer, changeup and cutter. The Cubs are able to damage against each of these 3 offerings. His 4-seamer is getting wrecked with a .447 wOBA and .638 SLG while Chicago ranks 3rd in SLG against left-handed 4-seamers this season. The Cubs also rank 4th in RV/100 against the changeup and 2nd against the cutter this year. They have faced 18 left-handed starting pitchers this season with 14 of them falling short of this 17.5 lin. Blake Snell did exceed this mark last night but it took 109 pitches and some help from Phil Cuzzi behind the plate. Look for the Cubs to give Anderson a tough outing tonight.
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