The NHL season that began back in October will reach its climax on Saturday, when the puck drops on Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Finals. Regardless of the outcome of this series, whoever hoists the cup at its conclusion will be celebrating their first franchise championship. This is each team's second appearance - Florida made it to the Finals in 1996 where they lost to Colorado, while Vegas made a run in their inaugural season, losing to Washington in 2018.
These two teams faced off twice in the regular season. Vegas won 4-2 back in January, netting two goals (one EN) in the final 3 minutes after trailing 2-1 heading into the third period. While in March Florida came out on top with a 2-1 victory that saw no scoring for the final 26 minutes of the game.
This should be a hard-fought, entertaining series for fans of the game. Both teams have played exceptional hockey to get to this point and should match up well against each other. However, looking at some of the underlying numbers, there are a few key areas to consider as we look at this matchup.
Florida's Shoddy Defense
While the Panthers have largely relied on their high-powered offense throughout the season and in this playoff run, they are going to need more from their defense if they want to win this series. During the regular season, Florida ranked 11th in the league in Expected Goals (xG) percentage, with 52.63%. Here in the postseason though, they rank 14th out of 16 teams at 46.22%. Similarly, the Panthers ranked 4th in the league in Fenwick (unblocked shot attempts) % during the regular season with 53.6%. In the playoffs, they are dead last at 45.15%. Now, some of this can be attributed to the quality of their opponents and a lack of production from their offense, but it also reflects a defense that is struggling to limit scoring and shooting opportunities for their opponents.
They are playing in the Stanley Cup Final, so obviously they have been able to overcome these deficits. But Vegas is no slouch, and if Florida is ceding the majority of quality scoring opportunities and shot attempts to the Golden Knights, they will make them pay.
Panther Penalty Woes
Throughout the regular season, Florida struggled to stay out of the penalty box, ranking 9th in the league in % of PIMs taken at 50.96%. In the playoffs it has only gotten worse, as they rank 2nd out of 16 teams with 53.82% of PIMs taken.
Thankfully if you're the Panthers, you have an opponent in Vegas that has struggled to scofe on the power play, despite having plenty of opportunities. That being said, there is a reason playing 5 on 4 is an advantage and if you are Florida you want to deny the Golden Knights any and all potential advantages.
Faceoff Circle
While they have been in the middle of the pack in the playoffs, during the regular season Vegas ranked 7th in the league in faceoff win % with 52.25%. Meanwhile, the Panthers struggled during the regular season, ranking 22nd, and in the playoff they are 14th out of 16 teams, winning 44.15% of draws. They say possession is nine-tenths of the law, but in this case, it could go a long way towards helping the Golden Knights find success in this matchup.
Where Are Shots Coming From?
Florida likes to pepper their opponents with shots, ranking in the top 10 during the regular season in high (1st), medium (10th) and low (3rd) danger shots. Vegas on the other hand, actually ranks in the bottom half of the league in both medium (18th) and low (19th) shots, while ranking 10th in high danger shots.
Unfortunately for Florida, Vegas ranked 6th in the league in limiting high danger shot attempts and 2nd in the league in limiting medium danger chances. They did however rank 28th in defending against low danger shots, so Florida may need to rely more on long range and poorly angled shots if they can't find a way to break down the Vegas defense.
On the other side of things, Florida was middling in their defense against medium and low danger chances during the regular season. They did however give up the 3rd most high danger shot opportunities. If they can't find a way to reverse that trend in this series, Vegas should be able to utilize their skill players in high-leverage spots on the ice to get pucks on net and score goals.
Nothing on Net
As I said in the previous section, it could be that Florida is forced to take more shots from less-than-ideal locations during this series, leaning more heavily on their blue line to help generate shots. However, that could prove to be difficult, as Vegas ranked 1st in the blocked shots during the regular season.
I'm looking forward to this series getting underway and to be honest I'm torn on how I think it will play out. Looking at the numbers, my brain tells me Vegas is likely to win this. However, I grew up rooting for the Panthers during the dark years when Minnesota didn't have an NHL squad, so my heart thinks the Panthers' brand of play could allow them to knock off Vegas much like they took down Boston, Toronto, and Carolina.
Whatever happens, I hope y'all enjoy it! There's nothing quite like playoff hockey.
If you liked this preview and would like to see more analysis, as well as player prop picks and other inane rambling, go check me out on Twitter @fnpropsguy.
The NHL season that began back in October will reach its climax on Saturday, when the puck drops on Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Finals. Regardless of the outcome of this series, whoever hoists the cup at its conclusion will be celebrating their first franchise championship. This is each team's second appearance - Florida made it to the Finals in 1996 where they lost to Colorado, while Vegas made a run in their inaugural season, losing to Washington in 2018.
These two teams faced off twice in the regular season. Vegas won 4-2 back in January, netting two goals (one EN) in the final 3 minutes after trailing 2-1 heading into the third period. While in March Florida came out on top with a 2-1 victory that saw no scoring for the final 26 minutes of the game.
This should be a hard-fought, entertaining series for fans of the game. Both teams have played exceptional hockey to get to this point and should match up well against each other. However, looking at some of the underlying numbers, there are a few key areas to consider as we look at this matchup.
Florida's Shoddy Defense
While the Panthers have largely relied on their high-powered offense throughout the season and in this playoff run, they are going to need more from their defense if they want to win this series. During the regular season, Florida ranked 11th in the league in Expected Goals (xG) percentage, with 52.63%. Here in the postseason though, they rank 14th out of 16 teams at 46.22%. Similarly, the Panthers ranked 4th in the league in Fenwick (unblocked shot attempts) % during the regular season with 53.6%. In the playoffs, they are dead last at 45.15%. Now, some of this can be attributed to the quality of their opponents and a lack of production from their offense, but it also reflects a defense that is struggling to limit scoring and shooting opportunities for their opponents.
They are playing in the Stanley Cup Final, so obviously they have been able to overcome these deficits. But Vegas is no slouch, and if Florida is ceding the majority of quality scoring opportunities and shot attempts to the Golden Knights, they will make them pay.
Panther Penalty Woes
Throughout the regular season, Florida struggled to stay out of the penalty box, ranking 9th in the league in % of PIMs taken at 50.96%. In the playoffs it has only gotten worse, as they rank 2nd out of 16 teams with 53.82% of PIMs taken.
Thankfully if you're the Panthers, you have an opponent in Vegas that has struggled to scofe on the power play, despite having plenty of opportunities. That being said, there is a reason playing 5 on 4 is an advantage and if you are Florida you want to deny the Golden Knights any and all potential advantages.
Faceoff Circle
While they have been in the middle of the pack in the playoffs, during the regular season Vegas ranked 7th in the league in faceoff win % with 52.25%. Meanwhile, the Panthers struggled during the regular season, ranking 22nd, and in the playoff they are 14th out of 16 teams, winning 44.15% of draws. They say possession is nine-tenths of the law, but in this case, it could go a long way towards helping the Golden Knights find success in this matchup.
Where Are Shots Coming From?
Florida likes to pepper their opponents with shots, ranking in the top 10 during the regular season in high (1st), medium (10th) and low (3rd) danger shots. Vegas on the other hand, actually ranks in the bottom half of the league in both medium (18th) and low (19th) shots, while ranking 10th in high danger shots.
Unfortunately for Florida, Vegas ranked 6th in the league in limiting high danger shot attempts and 2nd in the league in limiting medium danger chances. They did however rank 28th in defending against low danger shots, so Florida may need to rely more on long range and poorly angled shots if they can't find a way to break down the Vegas defense.
On the other side of things, Florida was middling in their defense against medium and low danger chances during the regular season. They did however give up the 3rd most high danger shot opportunities. If they can't find a way to reverse that trend in this series, Vegas should be able to utilize their skill players in high-leverage spots on the ice to get pucks on net and score goals.
Nothing on Net
As I said in the previous section, it could be that Florida is forced to take more shots from less-than-ideal locations during this series, leaning more heavily on their blue line to help generate shots. However, that could prove to be difficult, as Vegas ranked 1st in the blocked shots during the regular season.
I'm looking forward to this series getting underway and to be honest I'm torn on how I think it will play out. Looking at the numbers, my brain tells me Vegas is likely to win this. However, I grew up rooting for the Panthers during the dark years when Minnesota didn't have an NHL squad, so my heart thinks the Panthers' brand of play could allow them to knock off Vegas much like they took down Boston, Toronto, and Carolina.
Whatever happens, I hope y'all enjoy it! There's nothing quite like playoff hockey.
If you liked this preview and would like to see more analysis, as well as player prop picks and other inane rambling, go check me out on Twitter @fnpropsguy.
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