Entrée (1u) - Lourdes Gurriel Jr & Spencer Steer 1+ Hit (-112 @ FanDuel)
Starting with the Reds and Steer. This team is putting out 9 batters who are ALL right handed. They get to face James Paxton from the Red Sox, who is a left handed pitcher. There is already an advantage for the Reds. Paxton has allowed a 4.6 xFIP this season with a .290 batting average on balls in play. He's allowing right handed batters a .331 weighted on-base average and a .222 ISO. Steer has a hit in 9 of his last 10 games and 14 of his last 20. This season versus left handed pitchers, Steer is averaging a .302 batting average with a .914 on base plus slugging rate. His strikeout rate versus lefties is low at 18.3% and this is all coming from 53 at bats.
Paxton throws two primary pitches versus right handed batters, which is the 4-seam and the curveball. Steer is averaging a .560 weighted on-base average and a .538 ISO versus the 4-seam and he's averaging a .461 weighted on base average and a .294 ISO versus the curveball over the past 3 seasons.
Game is being played in Boston and there are some winds going out toward the monster of 7-9 mph. This would likely see a 26% decrease in HR probability and a 18% increase in doubles and triples, with a 8% increase in singles. This data is provided by Park Factors from ballparkpal.com. A lot to love from Steer tonight and I'll probably sprinkle on him to go yard.
Gurriel has a hit in 17 of his last 20 games and is coming off a no hit game last night versus the Rockies. He's got a hit in 73% of games this season. This season versus right handed pitchers, Gurriel is averaging a .297 batting average with a .955 OPS and a low 18% strikeout rate. That's on 128 at bats, which is 3rd highest on the team. He faces Dinelson Lamet, who is a former Padre. This season he is allowing a .459 weighted on-base average and a .238 ISO to right handed batters. He's striking out righties 5% lower than lefties.
Lamet throws a 4-seam and a slider, which Gurriel is hitting the slider with a .357 weighted on-base average and a .209 ISO and then hitting the 4-seam at a lower rate of a .255 weighted on-base average. Lamet throws the slider 52% and the 4-seam 48% of the time.
Let me know what your thoughts are!
Entrée (1u) - Lourdes Gurriel Jr & Spencer Steer 1+ Hit (-112 @ FanDuel)
Starting with the Reds and Steer. This team is putting out 9 batters who are ALL right handed. They get to face James Paxton from the Red Sox, who is a left handed pitcher. There is already an advantage for the Reds. Paxton has allowed a 4.6 xFIP this season with a .290 batting average on balls in play. He's allowing right handed batters a .331 weighted on-base average and a .222 ISO. Steer has a hit in 9 of his last 10 games and 14 of his last 20. This season versus left handed pitchers, Steer is averaging a .302 batting average with a .914 on base plus slugging rate. His strikeout rate versus lefties is low at 18.3% and this is all coming from 53 at bats.
Paxton throws two primary pitches versus right handed batters, which is the 4-seam and the curveball. Steer is averaging a .560 weighted on-base average and a .538 ISO versus the 4-seam and he's averaging a .461 weighted on base average and a .294 ISO versus the curveball over the past 3 seasons.
Game is being played in Boston and there are some winds going out toward the monster of 7-9 mph. This would likely see a 26% decrease in HR probability and a 18% increase in doubles and triples, with a 8% increase in singles. This data is provided by Park Factors from ballparkpal.com. A lot to love from Steer tonight and I'll probably sprinkle on him to go yard.
Gurriel has a hit in 17 of his last 20 games and is coming off a no hit game last night versus the Rockies. He's got a hit in 73% of games this season. This season versus right handed pitchers, Gurriel is averaging a .297 batting average with a .955 OPS and a low 18% strikeout rate. That's on 128 at bats, which is 3rd highest on the team. He faces Dinelson Lamet, who is a former Padre. This season he is allowing a .459 weighted on-base average and a .238 ISO to right handed batters. He's striking out righties 5% lower than lefties.
Lamet throws a 4-seam and a slider, which Gurriel is hitting the slider with a .357 weighted on-base average and a .209 ISO and then hitting the 4-seam at a lower rate of a .255 weighted on-base average. Lamet throws the slider 52% and the 4-seam 48% of the time.
Let me know what your thoughts are!
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