Atlanta's third baseman Austin Riley is ready to crush the over on the 1.5 total bases line in tonight's game against the Philadelphia Phillies.
We’ve hit four straight Pine Sports column DUBS so let’s keep on doing what we DO! If you've been closely following the MLB this season, you'll know that Atlanta's Austin Riley has been on an absolute tear. The slugger's recent performances have put him back on the MVP radar, and his scorching-hot bat is a major reason why I’m picking the over 1.5 for Austin Riley's total bases.
Let’s look at Riley's journey to his current form. The third baseman had a bit of a rough patch, batting just .200 in 17 games and seeing his average dip to .239. However, he's turned things around in a major way, going 12-for-30 (.400) with five doubles and two homers during an eight-game hitting streak. This surge has boosted his average to .264, and he's showing no signs of slowing down.
Not only has Riley been crushing it overall, but he's also been putting up some impressive numbers at home. This season, he's averaging 1.81 total bases at home compared to 1.71 on the road. And let's not forget his performance in the series opener against the Phillies, where he blasted two tape-measure home runs, totaling 917 feet between the two dingers!
Diving deeper into the stats, Riley's recent form is even more impressive. Over the last 20 games, he's averaging 2.1 total bases and has had more than 1.5 total bases in 13 games. Narrowing it down to the last 10 games, he's averaging 2.7 total bases and has had more than 1.5 total bases in 7 games. And in the last 5 games? He's averaging a jaw-dropping 3.4 total bases and has had more than 1.5 total bases in 4 games.
When looking at these numbers, it's clear that Riley is on an upward trend, and we can't ignore his performance last night against Philadelphia. In just one game against the Phillies, Riley had an insane 8 total bases! If that doesn't scream "pick the over," I don't know what does.
Of course, we can't solely focus on Riley without considering the matchup. Tonight's starting pitcher for the Phillies is Taijuan Walker. Walker has a 5.14 ERA against Atlanta in seven career starts, and his last outing against the Braves while with the New York Mets saw him give up eight runs on seven hits in just one-plus inning. It's certainly a favorable matchup that further supports my pick for the over.
When you look at the numbers and the current form of Austin Riley, it's hard not to feel confident about taking the over on his 1.5 total bases line. He's been a force at the plate, and facing a pitcher who has struggled against the Braves only adds to the likelihood that Riley will continue to crush it.
So, to sum it all up: Atlanta's Austin Riley is on a hot streak, his home performance is solid, his recent form is trending upwards, and he's got a favorable matchup against Philadelphia's Taijuan Walker. All of these factors make me believe in Riley's ability to get at least two bases during this game. Don't sleep on Austin Riley, folks. My man is on fire! Let’s lock it in and CASH OUT!
Pick: Austin Riley Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110)