Running it back with my boy Caleb Martin! His recent scoring surge makes him a prime pick for going over 12.5 points in the upcoming NBA showdown between Boston and Miami.
My last 3 prop pick columns have all been DUBS so let’s continue the trend! If you've been keeping an eye on the NBA playoffs, you know that the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics are locked in an intense battle for Eastern Conference supremacy. And while the usual suspects like Jayson Tatum and Jimmy Butler are making headlines, there's another player who's been quietly turning up the heat (pun intended) - the MAN Caleb Martin!
His recent performance has been nothing short of impressive, and that's why I'm confidently picking the over for Martin's points line at 12.5 in the upcoming game. Let's dive into the stats to see why I feel this is a solid bet.
First off, let's look at Martin's season averages. During the regular season, he put up 10.02 points per game. However, when we take a closer look at his home and away splits, we see that Martin actually performs better on the road, averaging 10.68 PPG compared to 9.36 PPG at home. Since the next game is in Boston, that's already a point in favor of picking the over.
But the real story here is Martin's recent scoring surge. Over the last 20 games, he's been averaging 10.9 PPG, which is already a slight improvement compared to his season average. But if we narrow it down even further, we see that Martin has been absolutely balling out in the last 10 games, putting up an impressive 13.7 PPG. If that's not enough to convince you, check out his last 4 games: a whopping 18.5 PPG, with all four of those games seeing him score more than 12.5 points.
Clearly, Martin is on an upward trajectory, and there's no reason to believe he'll slow down anytime soon. In fact, against the Celtics specifically, Martin has shown he can step up his game. In 8 matchups with Boston, he's averaged 12.88 PPG, which is higher than his overall season average and just above the 12.5-point line.
The numbers don't lie, and they're telling us that Martin has been on a tear lately, especially on the road and against the Celtics. And with the stakes higher than ever in this playoff showdown, I expect Martin to bring his A-game and put up some serious points.
Based on Martin's recent performances and his history against the Celtics, I'm confidently picking the over for Caleb Martin's 12.5-point line. Also Gabe Vincent has been ruled out tonight so that makes me like Caleb even more! Keep a close eye on Martin during the upcoming game, and be prepared for a potentially explosive scoring night from this under the radar rising star. Let’s lock it in and cash out!
Pick: Caleb Martin Over 12.5 Points (-130)