0.5U Eury Perez (MIA) over 4.5 strikeouts (+110) available at DraftKings and Caesars sportsbooks at time of initial post to Twitter. Playable to -110 odds.
There are many risks associated with betting on a rookie pitcher, especially in that pitchers MLB debut, and especially when that pitcher is a 20-year-old who is skipping AAA. That being said, there is also the chance we get to look back some day and tell our grandkids about the time we got a 4.5 line at plus money on Eury Perez against the Cincinnati Reds.
Perez is a 6'8" right-hander who happens to share a birthday with me and just turned 20 years of age less than a month ago. He utilizes a 4-pitch arsenal with his 4-seam fastball being used 44% of the time and sitting around 96-97 MPH. His fastball induces whiffs 31% of the time, but admittedly has allowed hard contact this season in the minor leagues. His cutter sits 86-87 and is thrown about 27% of the time with a 45% whiff rate. Perez throws his 89-90 MPH changeup around 15% of the time and that jumps over 20% when facing left-handed batters. He generates whiffs on 56% of those pitches and his changeup projects to be a lethal pitch for him in the majors. His 4th and softest thrown pitch is a slider that sits around 80 MPH but draws a 60% whiff rate so far this season, and is utilized more against right-handed bats.
In the minor leagues this season Perez has made 6 starts, exceeding this 4.5 strikeout mark each time while seeing his pitch count range from 71-90 pitches (AVG 83.17.) He has never exceeded 78 innings in a season and Miami is likely to be cautious with him, but they do need help from the starting rotation. “This is going to be a situation where we are going to be watching him very closely,” Marlins general manager Kim Ng said, “and monitoring everything that goes on in the game — what his pitch count is, how stressful those pitches have been. It’s going to be an entire group of people making sure that we do the best thing for him.” That quote is my main reasoning for staying at only a half unit, but he draws a favorable matchup in his debut, getting the Cincinnati Reds away from their home ballpark. Cincinnati bats have greatly benefited from playing in Great American Ballpark, but when on the road against right-handed pitching they rank just 26th in wOBA, 30th in ISO, and have a wRC+ of 75. Their overall 24.5% K% against right-handers ranks 7th highest in baseball and they struggle in particular against the changeup, ranking 25th in run value/100.
Cincinnati has the 5th highest CSW% as a team and Perez should be able to use his 4-pitch mix to his advantage and rack up plenty of both looking and swinging strikes. Perez recorded 14 or more swinging strikes in each of his 6 minor league starts this season while recording an overall SwStr% of 21.2%! Across 186 combined minor league innings Perez has recorded 226 strikeouts to only 60 walks. We obviously do not know the Reds lineup or the home plate umpire, but at plus money this was certainly worth a half-unit risk to me.
Minor league usage numbers from Perez in the 2nd paragraph were pulled from @LanceBroz on Twitter. Check out his YouTube channel for more info on Perez and his Twitter page for great info on pitchers across the league.
Above is an example of someone on Cincinnati who loves to strikeout, Wil Myers. Thank you, Wil.
0.5U Eury Perez (MIA) over 4.5 strikeouts (+110) available at DraftKings and Caesars sportsbooks at time of initial post to Twitter. Playable to -110 odds.
There are many risks associated with betting on a rookie pitcher, especially in that pitchers MLB debut, and especially when that pitcher is a 20-year-old who is skipping AAA. That being said, there is also the chance we get to look back some day and tell our grandkids about the time we got a 4.5 line at plus money on Eury Perez against the Cincinnati Reds.
Perez is a 6'8" right-hander who happens to share a birthday with me and just turned 20 years of age less than a month ago. He utilizes a 4-pitch arsenal with his 4-seam fastball being used 44% of the time and sitting around 96-97 MPH. His fastball induces whiffs 31% of the time, but admittedly has allowed hard contact this season in the minor leagues. His cutter sits 86-87 and is thrown about 27% of the time with a 45% whiff rate. Perez throws his 89-90 MPH changeup around 15% of the time and that jumps over 20% when facing left-handed batters. He generates whiffs on 56% of those pitches and his changeup projects to be a lethal pitch for him in the majors. His 4th and softest thrown pitch is a slider that sits around 80 MPH but draws a 60% whiff rate so far this season, and is utilized more against right-handed bats.
In the minor leagues this season Perez has made 6 starts, exceeding this 4.5 strikeout mark each time while seeing his pitch count range from 71-90 pitches (AVG 83.17.) He has never exceeded 78 innings in a season and Miami is likely to be cautious with him, but they do need help from the starting rotation. “This is going to be a situation where we are going to be watching him very closely,” Marlins general manager Kim Ng said, “and monitoring everything that goes on in the game — what his pitch count is, how stressful those pitches have been. It’s going to be an entire group of people making sure that we do the best thing for him.” That quote is my main reasoning for staying at only a half unit, but he draws a favorable matchup in his debut, getting the Cincinnati Reds away from their home ballpark. Cincinnati bats have greatly benefited from playing in Great American Ballpark, but when on the road against right-handed pitching they rank just 26th in wOBA, 30th in ISO, and have a wRC+ of 75. Their overall 24.5% K% against right-handers ranks 7th highest in baseball and they struggle in particular against the changeup, ranking 25th in run value/100.
Cincinnati has the 5th highest CSW% as a team and Perez should be able to use his 4-pitch mix to his advantage and rack up plenty of both looking and swinging strikes. Perez recorded 14 or more swinging strikes in each of his 6 minor league starts this season while recording an overall SwStr% of 21.2%! Across 186 combined minor league innings Perez has recorded 226 strikeouts to only 60 walks. We obviously do not know the Reds lineup or the home plate umpire, but at plus money this was certainly worth a half-unit risk to me.
Minor league usage numbers from Perez in the 2nd paragraph were pulled from @LanceBroz on Twitter. Check out his YouTube channel for more info on Perez and his Twitter page for great info on pitchers across the league.
Above is an example of someone on Cincinnati who loves to strikeout, Wil Myers. Thank you, Wil.
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