1U Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) 6+ strikeouts / Texas Rangers ML (-115) available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -120 odds.
Nathan Eovaldi was someone I loved betting on 2 seasons ago, and at times last season, but a change of scenery was needed. This offseason the veteran right-hander signed with the Texas Rangers and through 7 starts he is pitching the best he ever has. Eovaldi had troubles allowing hard contact last season, ranking 6th percentile in barrel rate and hard-hit rate. Injuries may have hindered his success, but so far this season Eovaldi has allowed only 5 barrels across 125 batted ball events, ranking him 82nd percentile. He has always had extreme control of the zone, and his aggressive nature has resulted in just a 4% walk rate, ranking 91st percentile. His ability to throw first pitch strikes and get ahead in counts sets up his chase pitches, and Eovaldi ranks 75th percentile in chase rate while his chase contact rate allowed is 3.1% below league average. Oakland ranks dead last in chase contact rate this season.
Eovaldi has career high marks in CSW (29.9%), SIERA (3.39), FIP (2.17), and ERA (3.22.) Each of his top 4 pitches have a put away rate of at least 21.2% while 3 of those pitches generate whiffs at least 25.2% of the time. His ability to throw each of those pitches for strikes in any count truly unlocks his game and keeps batters off balance. Eovaldi has recorded 6 or more strikeouts in 5 of his 7 games and 15 of 22 games with at least 72 pitches dating back to last season. He has pitched 6 or more innings in 4 consecutive starts with 17 innings across 220 pitches in his last 2 outings. He is clearly stretched out and Texas trusts him to go deep into ballgames. With his 18.5 outs line having -158 juice towards the over, the expectation is he sees 6 or 7 innings tonight. His opponent is an Oakland offense that has the 2nd highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching while ranking 21st in wOBA this season. They have played better of late, and do have some competent bats in their lineup, but I look for Eovaldi to register another strong outing. Active Oakland bats have a combined 37.9% K% and .102 AVG in 29 PA against Eovaldi all time. Ryan Noda and Titusville, PA legend JJ Bleday have never seen Eovaldi and are both high K% LHB. Eovaldi has a 24.8% K% against left-handed bats since the start of last season. The most dangerous bat, Brent Rooker, has never seen Eovaldi either and has a 25.5% K% against RHP since the start of last year.
I also like the matchup for the Ranger bats in this game. Texas leads all of baseball in runs scored per first 5 innings this season and they should be able to get off to a fast start in a favorable matchup against a AAA pitcher in Zach Neal. Neal hasn't appeared in an MLB game since 2018 and the 34-year-old has struggled both in Japan and the minor leagues since. Last year he posted a 6.87 ERA across his 29 games (21 starts) and this season his 5.56 ERA isn't much better. He has never been a high-velocity pitcher and his lack of strikeout capabilities may prove to be fatal against a powerful Texas lineup. The Rangers rank 6th in wOBA and 7th in ISO with a 114 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season. The scoring should continue throughout the game for Texas as the Oakland bullpen ranks 30th in ERA, wOBA, SLG, and have thrown 32 more walks than the next closest team. Washington ranks 29th in baseball in xFIP at 4.84, while Oakland is 30th at 6.12. Yikes. Oakland is just 8-30 this season and 3-15 in front of their empty home seats. Look for the Rangers to begin their series strong with a win behind Nathan Eovaldi.
1U Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) 6+ strikeouts / Texas Rangers ML (-115) available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -120 odds.
Nathan Eovaldi was someone I loved betting on 2 seasons ago, and at times last season, but a change of scenery was needed. This offseason the veteran right-hander signed with the Texas Rangers and through 7 starts he is pitching the best he ever has. Eovaldi had troubles allowing hard contact last season, ranking 6th percentile in barrel rate and hard-hit rate. Injuries may have hindered his success, but so far this season Eovaldi has allowed only 5 barrels across 125 batted ball events, ranking him 82nd percentile. He has always had extreme control of the zone, and his aggressive nature has resulted in just a 4% walk rate, ranking 91st percentile. His ability to throw first pitch strikes and get ahead in counts sets up his chase pitches, and Eovaldi ranks 75th percentile in chase rate while his chase contact rate allowed is 3.1% below league average. Oakland ranks dead last in chase contact rate this season.
Eovaldi has career high marks in CSW (29.9%), SIERA (3.39), FIP (2.17), and ERA (3.22.) Each of his top 4 pitches have a put away rate of at least 21.2% while 3 of those pitches generate whiffs at least 25.2% of the time. His ability to throw each of those pitches for strikes in any count truly unlocks his game and keeps batters off balance. Eovaldi has recorded 6 or more strikeouts in 5 of his 7 games and 15 of 22 games with at least 72 pitches dating back to last season. He has pitched 6 or more innings in 4 consecutive starts with 17 innings across 220 pitches in his last 2 outings. He is clearly stretched out and Texas trusts him to go deep into ballgames. With his 18.5 outs line having -158 juice towards the over, the expectation is he sees 6 or 7 innings tonight. His opponent is an Oakland offense that has the 2nd highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching while ranking 21st in wOBA this season. They have played better of late, and do have some competent bats in their lineup, but I look for Eovaldi to register another strong outing. Active Oakland bats have a combined 37.9% K% and .102 AVG in 29 PA against Eovaldi all time. Ryan Noda and Titusville, PA legend JJ Bleday have never seen Eovaldi and are both high K% LHB. Eovaldi has a 24.8% K% against left-handed bats since the start of last season. The most dangerous bat, Brent Rooker, has never seen Eovaldi either and has a 25.5% K% against RHP since the start of last year.
I also like the matchup for the Ranger bats in this game. Texas leads all of baseball in runs scored per first 5 innings this season and they should be able to get off to a fast start in a favorable matchup against a AAA pitcher in Zach Neal. Neal hasn't appeared in an MLB game since 2018 and the 34-year-old has struggled both in Japan and the minor leagues since. Last year he posted a 6.87 ERA across his 29 games (21 starts) and this season his 5.56 ERA isn't much better. He has never been a high-velocity pitcher and his lack of strikeout capabilities may prove to be fatal against a powerful Texas lineup. The Rangers rank 6th in wOBA and 7th in ISO with a 114 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season. The scoring should continue throughout the game for Texas as the Oakland bullpen ranks 30th in ERA, wOBA, SLG, and have thrown 32 more walks than the next closest team. Washington ranks 29th in baseball in xFIP at 4.84, while Oakland is 30th at 6.12. Yikes. Oakland is just 8-30 this season and 3-15 in front of their empty home seats. Look for the Rangers to begin their series strong with a win behind Nathan Eovaldi.
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