1U Jon Gray (TEX) under 5.5 strikeouts (+104) available at FanDuel sportsbook at time of initial post to Twitter. Widely available at -111 odds or better at time of publishing.
Jon Gray has had a poor start to his 2023 campaign. Last season the right-hander had a wipeout slider that induced whiffs at a 40.6% clip and accounted for 76 of his 134 Ks. This season he hasn't been locating it as sharply, and the whiff rate has fallen to 32.4% with a miniscule 10.9% put away rate. His overall chase rate has fallen 2.2% from last season and sits at a league average mark, while his chase contact rate allowed has risen 3.7%. Gray has seen a 2.3% decrease in his SwStr%, 3.3% decrease in CSW%, and his zone contact rate is up 4.1%. He is extremely dependent on looking strikes with 42.1% of his strikeouts coming via a taken 3rd strike, the 7th highest mark among qualifiers. A swinging strike rate below 10% (Gray is 9.3%) is a worrisome mark, especially for someone who has an 11.2% rate for his career. His 4.40 ERA is shadowed by a 6.15 xERA (13th percentile), and a 6.22 FIP. His .256 BABIP and 79.2% LOB% are clear outliers in comparison to the rest of his career, and his ground ball rate has fallen for the 3rd consecutive season. Essentially, Gray is lucky to have a 4.40 ERA currently, and further regression may be in store.
Gray's fastball is thrown 47.1% of the time and hit very hard. Opponents have a .652 xSLG and .458 xwOBA against his 4-seamers this season and when batters are ahead in the count his usage jumps over 52%. He becomes a 2-pitch pitcher with 2 strikes, throwing his changeup and curveball far less. He has yet to induce a single whiff in a 2-strike count with either of those offerings. Gray exited his start against Houston on April 15th after only 2 innings due to a line drive off his throwing elbow. He initially stated he thought it was broken but after X-rays came back negative, he made his next scheduled start. His next 3 starts came against Cincinnati, Oakland, and Arizona. Gray allowed 3 or more earned runs in each of those starts with only 6 strikeouts to 8 walks in his 16.2 combined innings of work. Yes, 2 strikeouts against the Reds and Athletics each who are 2 of the more undisciplined offenses in baseball. His season long K-BB% of 3.8% is hilariously low, and he doesn't seem to be fully right currently.
Seattle is not the most attractive team to target for an under, but I like their matchup in this spot. They have the 11th lowest CSW% in baseball while taking the 5th most pitches per plate appearance and drawing the 11th highest BB% against right-handed pitching. The Mariners have been a league average offense against righties overall, but have plenty of powerful bats in their lineup. Gray's out prop is sitting at 16.5 today. Outside of Cole Ragans who threw 39 pitches yesterday, all Texas relievers should be available for this game and Gray shouldn't be pushed more than his usual 90 pitches or so. With Seattle ranking near league average in chase rate and contact rate, their overall strikeout rate against right-handed pitching should improve as they see a larger sample of PA. Betting an under before knowing the umpire situation is admittedly a bit speculative, but getting this bet at plus money was worth the risk for me. Best of luck if you tail!
*If you are placing this bet at FanDuel, save a step by clicking the link below. It will put Jon Gray U5.5 strikeouts directly into your betslip on the app!*
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1U Jon Gray (TEX) under 5.5 strikeouts (+104) available at FanDuel sportsbook at time of initial post to Twitter. Widely available at -111 odds or better at time of publishing.
Jon Gray has had a poor start to his 2023 campaign. Last season the right-hander had a wipeout slider that induced whiffs at a 40.6% clip and accounted for 76 of his 134 Ks. This season he hasn't been locating it as sharply, and the whiff rate has fallen to 32.4% with a miniscule 10.9% put away rate. His overall chase rate has fallen 2.2% from last season and sits at a league average mark, while his chase contact rate allowed has risen 3.7%. Gray has seen a 2.3% decrease in his SwStr%, 3.3% decrease in CSW%, and his zone contact rate is up 4.1%. He is extremely dependent on looking strikes with 42.1% of his strikeouts coming via a taken 3rd strike, the 7th highest mark among qualifiers. A swinging strike rate below 10% (Gray is 9.3%) is a worrisome mark, especially for someone who has an 11.2% rate for his career. His 4.40 ERA is shadowed by a 6.15 xERA (13th percentile), and a 6.22 FIP. His .256 BABIP and 79.2% LOB% are clear outliers in comparison to the rest of his career, and his ground ball rate has fallen for the 3rd consecutive season. Essentially, Gray is lucky to have a 4.40 ERA currently, and further regression may be in store.
Gray's fastball is thrown 47.1% of the time and hit very hard. Opponents have a .652 xSLG and .458 xwOBA against his 4-seamers this season and when batters are ahead in the count his usage jumps over 52%. He becomes a 2-pitch pitcher with 2 strikes, throwing his changeup and curveball far less. He has yet to induce a single whiff in a 2-strike count with either of those offerings. Gray exited his start against Houston on April 15th after only 2 innings due to a line drive off his throwing elbow. He initially stated he thought it was broken but after X-rays came back negative, he made his next scheduled start. His next 3 starts came against Cincinnati, Oakland, and Arizona. Gray allowed 3 or more earned runs in each of those starts with only 6 strikeouts to 8 walks in his 16.2 combined innings of work. Yes, 2 strikeouts against the Reds and Athletics each who are 2 of the more undisciplined offenses in baseball. His season long K-BB% of 3.8% is hilariously low, and he doesn't seem to be fully right currently.
Seattle is not the most attractive team to target for an under, but I like their matchup in this spot. They have the 11th lowest CSW% in baseball while taking the 5th most pitches per plate appearance and drawing the 11th highest BB% against right-handed pitching. The Mariners have been a league average offense against righties overall, but have plenty of powerful bats in their lineup. Gray's out prop is sitting at 16.5 today. Outside of Cole Ragans who threw 39 pitches yesterday, all Texas relievers should be available for this game and Gray shouldn't be pushed more than his usual 90 pitches or so. With Seattle ranking near league average in chase rate and contact rate, their overall strikeout rate against right-handed pitching should improve as they see a larger sample of PA. Betting an under before knowing the umpire situation is admittedly a bit speculative, but getting this bet at plus money was worth the risk for me. Best of luck if you tail!
*If you are placing this bet at FanDuel, save a step by clicking the link below. It will put Jon Gray U5.5 strikeouts directly into your betslip on the app!*
https://t.co/5LohUBDtvf
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