Entree (1u) - Boston Red Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies OVER 5.5 F5 Total Runs (-110 MGM)
As I researched this game for any first 5 inning team totals, I couldn't figure out which pitcher I liked more to give up the most runs. So I decided to just combine them. The Phillies have been one of the best teams versus right handed pitchers being 6th in weighted runs created and 7th in on-base percentage. Meanwhile, the Boston Red Sox are on a 7 game win streak and are welcoming back Verdugo into the lineup after him not starting last night. They're 13th in weighted runs created and 10th in on-base percentage this season. Both teams are top 10 this season in first 5 runs per game. Boston is averaging 5.33 runs in the first 5 innings over their last 3 games.
Bailey Falter is starting for the Phillies and Corey Kluber is on the mound for the Red Sox. Falter has allowed 3 or more runs in 4 straight games and Kluber has allowed 3 or more runs in 4 of his 6 starts this season. Both pitchers are averaging a 20% k rate or lower this season and are allowing an xFIP of 4.68 or higher. The Red Sox are averaging a .322 batting average on balls in play versus left handed pitchers. Falter is allowing a .191 ISO to lefties and a .216 ISO to righties and the Red Sox have plenty of guys with high ISOs who can go yard like Devers, Hernandez, and Refsnyder.
Kluber on the other hand is allowing a .173 ISO and .319 wOBA to lefties and a .168 ISO and a .309 wOBA to righties this season. He's worse versus lefties and lefties on the Phillies are hitting right handed pitchers very well this season. They just got back Bryce Harper, who could be a huge offensive lift to the other players around him. Schwarber is averaging a .318 ISO and .370 wOBA, Harper averaging a .277 ISO and a .401 wOBA, Brandon Marsh averaging a .180 ISO with a .332 wOBA. Those stats are all versus right handed pitchers. Then the Phillies have right handed batters like Trea Turner, Nick Castellanos, and JT Realmuto, who can make solid contact. Realmuto is the only guy there with significant power versus righties as he averages a .210 ISO.
There is so many factors as to why I like both these teams to run up the score in the first couple innings. Red Sox the hottest team in baseball right now and the Phillies are playing at home in Harpers second home game back from Tommy John surgery. Let me know what you think!
Entree (1u) - Boston Red Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies OVER 5.5 F5 Total Runs (-110 MGM)
As I researched this game for any first 5 inning team totals, I couldn't figure out which pitcher I liked more to give up the most runs. So I decided to just combine them. The Phillies have been one of the best teams versus right handed pitchers being 6th in weighted runs created and 7th in on-base percentage. Meanwhile, the Boston Red Sox are on a 7 game win streak and are welcoming back Verdugo into the lineup after him not starting last night. They're 13th in weighted runs created and 10th in on-base percentage this season. Both teams are top 10 this season in first 5 runs per game. Boston is averaging 5.33 runs in the first 5 innings over their last 3 games.
Bailey Falter is starting for the Phillies and Corey Kluber is on the mound for the Red Sox. Falter has allowed 3 or more runs in 4 straight games and Kluber has allowed 3 or more runs in 4 of his 6 starts this season. Both pitchers are averaging a 20% k rate or lower this season and are allowing an xFIP of 4.68 or higher. The Red Sox are averaging a .322 batting average on balls in play versus left handed pitchers. Falter is allowing a .191 ISO to lefties and a .216 ISO to righties and the Red Sox have plenty of guys with high ISOs who can go yard like Devers, Hernandez, and Refsnyder.
Kluber on the other hand is allowing a .173 ISO and .319 wOBA to lefties and a .168 ISO and a .309 wOBA to righties this season. He's worse versus lefties and lefties on the Phillies are hitting right handed pitchers very well this season. They just got back Bryce Harper, who could be a huge offensive lift to the other players around him. Schwarber is averaging a .318 ISO and .370 wOBA, Harper averaging a .277 ISO and a .401 wOBA, Brandon Marsh averaging a .180 ISO with a .332 wOBA. Those stats are all versus right handed pitchers. Then the Phillies have right handed batters like Trea Turner, Nick Castellanos, and JT Realmuto, who can make solid contact. Realmuto is the only guy there with significant power versus righties as he averages a .210 ISO.
There is so many factors as to why I like both these teams to run up the score in the first couple innings. Red Sox the hottest team in baseball right now and the Phillies are playing at home in Harpers second home game back from Tommy John surgery. Let me know what you think!
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