Entrée (1u) - Los Angeles Dodgers OVER 1.5 F5 TT / STL Cardinals +2.5 (-109 DK)
This number is around -145 odds straight, which I'm not willing to play those odds but this number is too low for an offense like LA. Averaging 3.06 runs per game in the first 5 innings. They struggle to score more on the road so far this season but they are still averaging 2.36. The average of 3.06 is the same they ended with last year. This Dodgers roster is completely different compared to last year. No Trea Turner and no Justin Turner. They've brought in JD Martinez while adding in strong contributions from rookie James Outman. They've brought in former Cub Jason Heyward and are running David Peralta near the bottom of the batting order.
Dodgers face a familiar foe in Yu Darvish tonight. They should come out with a lineup that holds 5 lefties and 4 righties to face off against Darvish. Righties are striking out only 17% of the time and lefties are striking out 23% but that's heavily swayed due to Outman's 34.9% k rate and Max Muncy having a 27% k rate as well. Darvish has allowed 12 runs in 5 starts for a ERA of 3.6. His xFIP comes out to be 4.07. The Dodgers are 2nd weighted runs created and 1st in on-base percentage this season and they ranked 1st in both categories last season.
I'll start with the lefties. Like mentioned, other than Muncy and Outman, the other 3 left handed hitters hold a strikeout rate of 21.3%, 19.2, and 12.7, with the last being Freddie Freeman. Left handed batters for the Dodgers when facing a right handed pitcher are averaging a .219 ISO and a .356 wOBA and walking at 11.4%, which is better for this matchup being Darvish walks lefties more. They're also averaging a .318 batting average on balls in play. Darvish is getting lefties at a .272 wOBA and a .147 ISO, which I'd like to see the ISO higher but that's just how Darvish pitches.
With the righties, there isn't a ton to think about. They're striking out at a 6% less rate and they're making more contact on the ball compared to the lefties. A few of those righties contain Mookie Betts, Will Smith, and Miguel Vargas. You'd see JD Martinez on this list but it's not looking like he will start tonight. Darvish is a better pitcher versus right handed batters, which is why I've focused on the lefties for tonight. With how well these lefties for LA have hit this season versus right handed pitchers, all it takes is one guy on base and someone like Muncy or Outman to get a good look at a bad pitch but that's baseball. The Cardinals shouldn't lose tonight even though they're off to a rough start this season. The graph says it's a coin flip but has his projected earned runs at 2.5, which we only need 2 for this bet to cash.
Let me know your thoughts! 
Entrée (1u) - Los Angeles Dodgers OVER 1.5 F5 TT / STL Cardinals +2.5 (-109 DK)
This number is around -145 odds straight, which I'm not willing to play those odds but this number is too low for an offense like LA. Averaging 3.06 runs per game in the first 5 innings. They struggle to score more on the road so far this season but they are still averaging 2.36. The average of 3.06 is the same they ended with last year. This Dodgers roster is completely different compared to last year. No Trea Turner and no Justin Turner. They've brought in JD Martinez while adding in strong contributions from rookie James Outman. They've brought in former Cub Jason Heyward and are running David Peralta near the bottom of the batting order.
Dodgers face a familiar foe in Yu Darvish tonight. They should come out with a lineup that holds 5 lefties and 4 righties to face off against Darvish. Righties are striking out only 17% of the time and lefties are striking out 23% but that's heavily swayed due to Outman's 34.9% k rate and Max Muncy having a 27% k rate as well. Darvish has allowed 12 runs in 5 starts for a ERA of 3.6. His xFIP comes out to be 4.07. The Dodgers are 2nd weighted runs created and 1st in on-base percentage this season and they ranked 1st in both categories last season.
I'll start with the lefties. Like mentioned, other than Muncy and Outman, the other 3 left handed hitters hold a strikeout rate of 21.3%, 19.2, and 12.7, with the last being Freddie Freeman. Left handed batters for the Dodgers when facing a right handed pitcher are averaging a .219 ISO and a .356 wOBA and walking at 11.4%, which is better for this matchup being Darvish walks lefties more. They're also averaging a .318 batting average on balls in play. Darvish is getting lefties at a .272 wOBA and a .147 ISO, which I'd like to see the ISO higher but that's just how Darvish pitches.
With the righties, there isn't a ton to think about. They're striking out at a 6% less rate and they're making more contact on the ball compared to the lefties. A few of those righties contain Mookie Betts, Will Smith, and Miguel Vargas. You'd see JD Martinez on this list but it's not looking like he will start tonight. Darvish is a better pitcher versus right handed batters, which is why I've focused on the lefties for tonight. With how well these lefties for LA have hit this season versus right handed pitchers, all it takes is one guy on base and someone like Muncy or Outman to get a good look at a bad pitch but that's baseball. The Cardinals shouldn't lose tonight even though they're off to a rough start this season. The graph says it's a coin flip but has his projected earned runs at 2.5, which we only need 2 for this bet to cash.
Let me know your thoughts!
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