Entrée (1u) - Baltimore Orioles OVER 2.5 F5 TT (-120 DK)

There is a lot to love about the Orioles and how they've started this season. They're currently 6th in the MLB in runs per game in the first 5 innings. They're averaging 3.23 overall with 3 at home and 3.45 on the road. They get to matchup versus Corey Kluber and the Boston Red Sox tonight. Kluber is off to a rough start to his 2023 campaign, allowing 4 or more runs in 3 of his 4 starts. He had one start versus the Pirates where he only allowed 1 run but only struck out 2 batters. He didn't control the plate but kept everything out of play that game. 

Baltimore comes into this game ranking 11th in weighted runs created and on-base percentage. They've already seen Kluber once this season and that was on Opening Day, where he allowed the Orioles to score 5 runs. This season the Orioles have struck out more versus righties than they do versus lefties but like mentioned before, Kluber doesn't command the strike zone. He's 26th percentile in strikeouts per inning and in the 54th percentile for swinging strike percentage. However, Kluber has a slight advantage in strikeout percentage versus lefties than he does righties. This advantage is as small as a 0.8% increase.

Orioles batters this season versus righties have faired well. Kluber allows a .333 weighted on-base average and a .185 ISO to lefties and based off the projections, you should see 3 natural left handed batters and then you've got the two switch hitters in Santander and Rutschman. Those expected to bat left handed today are all seeing fairly good numbers vs righties. Rutschman has a .223 ISO and .384 wOBA, Santander has a .193 ISO and a .301 wOBA, Gunnar Henderson with a .182 ISO and .322 wOBA, and then even righties like Ryan Mountcastle are showing a .175 ISO and a .299 wOBA. Overall, Kluber is allowing a 4.62 xFIP and a .310 batting average on balls in play. He struggles versus lefties mainly but he can give it up to both righties and lefties.

This Orioles team has been one of my favorite teams to bet on since getting more into betting on the MLB. I'll ride with them tonight and continue to ride with them when they have an edge no matter how tonight ends up.