Hey there everyone, this is your Friendly Neighborhood Props Guy here with a look at some of my favorite NHL player props available for tonight's playoff action.
We've made it to Game 3 of the first round of the 2023 NHL playoffs and it's been exciting stuff so far. 6 of the 8 series are tied 1-1 at this point, with the Carolina Hurricanes and New York Rangers jumping out to early 2-0 leads in their series. Tonight, they switch up venues as the home teams (minus the Islanders) will look to build on any momentum gained from stealing one on the road while playing their first games of the series in front of their home fans.
For tonight, I've got one player prop from each team competing this evening. I'll lay out why they caught my eye, and you can decide for yourself whether to tail, fade, or go the complete opposite direction.
Let's get started.
Brent Burns OVER 3 Shots on Goal
Simply put, the more dinged up Carolina's forward corps becomes, the more I like Burns in this series. Coming in, the Hurricanes were already down Pacioretty & Svechnikov. In Game 2, Teravainen broke his hand and will miss the remainder of the series. Enter Brent Burns, who has 10 shots on 17 attempts in the first 2 games of this series. He has 4+ SOG in both 4 of his last 5 games overall and 4 of his last 5 road games.
Though not typically a great target for shots from the blue line, the Islanders have been giving up 8.11 shots per game to defensemen since the trade deadline when playing on home ice, which puts them in the middle of the pack. With Carolina averaging 35.73 shots per game on the road over the last 6 weeks, the 'Canes are well positioned to generate scoring chances from their defensive pairings. What puts this over the top for me is that in his recent games Burns is actually shooting at a higher clip on the road - 6.5 attempts per game in his last 10 home games vs 8.9 attempts per game in his last 10 away games. So, if he has been getting it done so far in this series on home ice, I almost like him to continue shooting even more as they shift to Long Island for Games 3 & 4.
Kyle Palmieri OVER 2 Shots on Goal
Looking at the Islanders of late, Kyle Palmieri has been a sneaky consistent shooter. He has 3 or more SOG in 3 of 4 matchups with Carolina this season, 4 of his last 5 games overall, and 4 of his last 5 games on home ice.
There is no doubt that the Hurricanes are a stingy opponent for shooters, but Palmieri appears to have a knack for finding his opportunities and taking them. Right Wing on the 2nd line with Engvall and Nelson, he has been averaging nearly 6 attempts per game over his last 10 games, with his volume trending upward at home in his last 5 games as well.
Jake DeBrusk OVER 2.5 Shots on Goal
While much of the focus will be on Florida tonight with the series relocating to the Sunshine State, this is a great spot for Bruins' shooters. On home ice since the trade deadline Florida is near the top of the league in shots allowed per game at 33.25. Meanwhile, on the road over the same time frame Boston has averaged 32.1 shots per game, good for top 10 in the NHL.
At 2.5, DeBrusk has hit in 3 of 5 matchups with Florida this season, including Game 2 the other night. While he has only hit in 2 of his last 5 games, the reason I'm liking this is because he has hit more (5 of his last 7) on the road lately and has been seeing more shot attempts when away from home. Matchup-wise this works to DeBrusk's advantage as well, as the Panthers are near the top of the league in shots allowed to Right Wings over their last 10 games.
While a move down to the 3rd line with Bertuzzi & Krejci for Game 3 may give him less ice time, it's clear they are redistributing their talent (Marchand up top, Pasta on 2, DeBrusk on 3) in the hopes of finding the gap in Florida's armor. I trust DeBrusk's skill to get it done for us regardless of where he is on the depth chart, and he is still skating with PP1 where he should see some opportunities tonight.
Brandon Montour OVER 3 Shots on Goal
Throughout the season, the Florida Panthers have been one of the most prolific shooting teams in the league when playing on home ice. Averaging nearly 39 shots per game since the trade deadline, they are generally hard to shut down. While Boston is not a team with many weaknesses, some of their moves at the deadline seem to have improved the team overall while leading them to give up more shots on goal -previously a stingy team, in recent weeks they have moved into firm middle of the pack territory.
Montour has failed to hit in any of the 5 games vs Boston this season. I'll just get that out of the way first. However, the reason I still like it is because they pushed at 3 SOG in each of the 2 home games vs the Bruins this season (the others were in Boston). When playing in Florida this season, Montour has 3 or more SOG in 28 of 40 games (70% hit rate). On the road? 19 of 42 (45% hit rate). More recently, he has 4+ SOG in 7 of his last 8 home games. Given that track record and given the matchup and playoff atmosphere, I'm more than willing to ride with him to get 4 shots on goal tonight.
Roope Hintz OVER 2.5 Shots on Goal
Over in 5 of his 6 matchups with Minnesota this season, it's really hard not to like Hintz to keep it going tonight in Game 3. Though his attempt numbers on the road have not been promising lately, he has still managed 3+ SOG in 3 of his last 5 road games and in this instance, I think the more important consideration is his familiarity with this team and his role on the top line with Pavelski out of the lineup.
It sounds like Ryan Hartman & Joel Eriksson Ek are close to returning for Minnesota, but if one or both of them doesn't go tonight, the Wild will have very little by way of competent Center play to disrupt the Dallas offense. Minnesota doesn't tend to give up as many shots on home ice, but they are still middle of the league and they are near the top of the NHL in shots allowed to Centers.
Kirill Kaprizov OVER 4 Shots on Goal
A Wild fan through and through, it's quite tempting to overthink this one. However, I am going to trust to Kaprizov SOG on home ice - a phenomenon that has made me plenty of money going back to last season. He has hit 5+ SOG in exactly half of his home games this season, including 6 of his last 8. He has 4+ in 22 of 36, a 61% hit rate that serves as a nice foundation for this bet. Averaging 7 attempts per game over his last 5 games overall, that is dwarfed by the 11 attempts per game he has averaged in his last 5 home games.
Game 3, home ice, embarassing Game 2 loss. This is the perfect stage for Kaprizov to step in and do his thing, which is to shoot the puck at a high clip.
Evander Kane OVER 3 Shots on Goal
Trusting to attempt volume on this play as none of the Oiler props I have available have stellar road numbers. Kane has 4+ SOG in 3 of his last 5 road games where he has been averaging 7.8 attempts per game (compared to 5.8 per game at home). Though he missed nearly half the season due to injury, he has been finding his groove in the lineup and comes into the game with 3 or more shots on goal in 60% of his appearances this season, including 7 of his last 10 games overall and 10 of his last 14 on the road. With his attempt volume on the road and tendency to get at least 3 SOG, I'm willing to take the push risk on this one in a game Edmonton would certainly like to win after LA stole one in Edmonton.
Trevor Moore OVER 2.5 Shots on Goal
Getting it done on home ice, Moore has 3+ shots in 4 of his last 5 games in Los Angeles. When playing at home, the Kings have averaged 34 shots per game since the trade deadline, near the top of the NHL. This is a great opportunity for Los Angeles to get a leg up on Edmonton tonight after stealing Game 1. Seeing more ice time with Fiala out of the lineup, I like Moore to help produce scoring opportunities on the second line tonight.
That'll do it for today, if you like this breakdown, check me out on Twitter @fnpropsguy for more hockey data, news, and usually daily NHL player prop picks.
Whatever you end up playing tonight, I hope it hits for you. Nothing better than playoff hockey.
Hey there everyone, this is your Friendly Neighborhood Props Guy here with a look at some of my favorite NHL player props available for tonight's playoff action.
We've made it to Game 3 of the first round of the 2023 NHL playoffs and it's been exciting stuff so far. 6 of the 8 series are tied 1-1 at this point, with the Carolina Hurricanes and New York Rangers jumping out to early 2-0 leads in their series. Tonight, they switch up venues as the home teams (minus the Islanders) will look to build on any momentum gained from stealing one on the road while playing their first games of the series in front of their home fans.
For tonight, I've got one player prop from each team competing this evening. I'll lay out why they caught my eye, and you can decide for yourself whether to tail, fade, or go the complete opposite direction.
Let's get started.
Simply put, the more dinged up Carolina's forward corps becomes, the more I like Burns in this series. Coming in, the Hurricanes were already down Pacioretty & Svechnikov. In Game 2, Teravainen broke his hand and will miss the remainder of the series. Enter Brent Burns, who has 10 shots on 17 attempts in the first 2 games of this series. He has 4+ SOG in both 4 of his last 5 games overall and 4 of his last 5 road games.
Though not typically a great target for shots from the blue line, the Islanders have been giving up 8.11 shots per game to defensemen since the trade deadline when playing on home ice, which puts them in the middle of the pack. With Carolina averaging 35.73 shots per game on the road over the last 6 weeks, the 'Canes are well positioned to generate scoring chances from their defensive pairings. What puts this over the top for me is that in his recent games Burns is actually shooting at a higher clip on the road - 6.5 attempts per game in his last 10 home games vs 8.9 attempts per game in his last 10 away games. So, if he has been getting it done so far in this series on home ice, I almost like him to continue shooting even more as they shift to Long Island for Games 3 & 4.
Looking at the Islanders of late, Kyle Palmieri has been a sneaky consistent shooter. He has 3 or more SOG in 3 of 4 matchups with Carolina this season, 4 of his last 5 games overall, and 4 of his last 5 games on home ice.
There is no doubt that the Hurricanes are a stingy opponent for shooters, but Palmieri appears to have a knack for finding his opportunities and taking them. Right Wing on the 2nd line with Engvall and Nelson, he has been averaging nearly 6 attempts per game over his last 10 games, with his volume trending upward at home in his last 5 games as well.
While much of the focus will be on Florida tonight with the series relocating to the Sunshine State, this is a great spot for Bruins' shooters. On home ice since the trade deadline Florida is near the top of the league in shots allowed per game at 33.25. Meanwhile, on the road over the same time frame Boston has averaged 32.1 shots per game, good for top 10 in the NHL.
At 2.5, DeBrusk has hit in 3 of 5 matchups with Florida this season, including Game 2 the other night. While he has only hit in 2 of his last 5 games, the reason I'm liking this is because he has hit more (5 of his last 7) on the road lately and has been seeing more shot attempts when away from home. Matchup-wise this works to DeBrusk's advantage as well, as the Panthers are near the top of the league in shots allowed to Right Wings over their last 10 games.
While a move down to the 3rd line with Bertuzzi & Krejci for Game 3 may give him less ice time, it's clear they are redistributing their talent (Marchand up top, Pasta on 2, DeBrusk on 3) in the hopes of finding the gap in Florida's armor. I trust DeBrusk's skill to get it done for us regardless of where he is on the depth chart, and he is still skating with PP1 where he should see some opportunities tonight.
Throughout the season, the Florida Panthers have been one of the most prolific shooting teams in the league when playing on home ice. Averaging nearly 39 shots per game since the trade deadline, they are generally hard to shut down. While Boston is not a team with many weaknesses, some of their moves at the deadline seem to have improved the team overall while leading them to give up more shots on goal -previously a stingy team, in recent weeks they have moved into firm middle of the pack territory.
Roope Hintz OVER 2.5 Shots on Goal
Montour has failed to hit in any of the 5 games vs Boston this season. I'll just get that out of the way first. However, the reason I still like it is because they pushed at 3 SOG in each of the 2 home games vs the Bruins this season (the others were in Boston). When playing in Florida this season, Montour has 3 or more SOG in 28 of 40 games (70% hit rate). On the road? 19 of 42 (45% hit rate). More recently, he has 4+ SOG in 7 of his last 8 home games. Given that track record and given the matchup and playoff atmosphere, I'm more than willing to ride with him to get 4 shots on goal tonight.
Over in 5 of his 6 matchups with Minnesota this season, it's really hard not to like Hintz to keep it going tonight in Game 3. Though his attempt numbers on the road have not been promising lately, he has still managed 3+ SOG in 3 of his last 5 road games and in this instance, I think the more important consideration is his familiarity with this team and his role on the top line with Pavelski out of the lineup.
It sounds like Ryan Hartman & Joel Eriksson Ek are close to returning for Minnesota, but if one or both of them doesn't go tonight, the Wild will have very little by way of competent Center play to disrupt the Dallas offense. Minnesota doesn't tend to give up as many shots on home ice, but they are still middle of the league and they are near the top of the NHL in shots allowed to Centers.
A Wild fan through and through, it's quite tempting to overthink this one. However, I am going to trust to Kaprizov SOG on home ice - a phenomenon that has made me plenty of money going back to last season. He has hit 5+ SOG in exactly half of his home games this season, including 6 of his last 8. He has 4+ in 22 of 36, a 61% hit rate that serves as a nice foundation for this bet. Averaging 7 attempts per game over his last 5 games overall, that is dwarfed by the 11 attempts per game he has averaged in his last 5 home games.
Game 3, home ice, embarassing Game 2 loss. This is the perfect stage for Kaprizov to step in and do his thing, which is to shoot the puck at a high clip.
Trusting to attempt volume on this play as none of the Oiler props I have available have stellar road numbers. Kane has 4+ SOG in 3 of his last 5 road games where he has been averaging 7.8 attempts per game (compared to 5.8 per game at home). Though he missed nearly half the season due to injury, he has been finding his groove in the lineup and comes into the game with 3 or more shots on goal in 60% of his appearances this season, including 7 of his last 10 games overall and 10 of his last 14 on the road. With his attempt volume on the road and tendency to get at least 3 SOG, I'm willing to take the push risk on this one in a game Edmonton would certainly like to win after LA stole one in Edmonton.
Getting it done on home ice, Moore has 3+ shots in 4 of his last 5 games in Los Angeles. When playing at home, the Kings have averaged 34 shots per game since the trade deadline, near the top of the NHL. This is a great opportunity for Los Angeles to get a leg up on Edmonton tonight after stealing Game 1. Seeing more ice time with Fiala out of the lineup, I like Moore to help produce scoring opportunities on the second line tonight.
That'll do it for today, if you like this breakdown, check me out on Twitter @fnpropsguy for more hockey data, news, and usually daily NHL player prop picks.
Whatever you end up playing tonight, I hope it hits for you. Nothing better than playoff hockey.
Win your way.
Your AI model belongs to you.