Entree (1u) - Rowdy Tellez (MIL) OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+105 DK)
Just like last night, this is a market I don't normally bet but as I was looking through the starting pitchers for tonight, I fell in love with the matchup Tellez has tonight versus Nick Pivetta of the Boston Red Sox. For starters, Tellez is averaging a .340 weighted on-base average and .280 ISO versus right handed pitchers this season. That ISO number is fantastic. He's also supporting a 19% strikeout rate versus righties, which is one of the lowest on the team.
When you look at Pivetta's splits, there is a significant gap between how well he allows lefties to hit compared to how he controls righties. He allows a .344 weighted on-base average and a .210 ISO versus lefties this season, which matchups with Tellez's numbers versus righties. Tellez has also reached this 2 hits, runs, and RBIs combined number in 10 out of 17 games this season.
Pivetta throws a 4-seam, curveball, and slider for his pitch mix. Tellez has a .430 weighted on-base average and .667 slugging versus the 4-seam. He's seen 25 curveballs this season and absolutely crushed the ball when shown it. He's rocking a 1.117 weighted on-base average, a low 16.7 strikeout percentage, and a 2.400 slugging, which isn't sustainable, but is insane numbers through 17 games. He has struggled with the slider but Pivetta throws it the 3rd most and last season he finished in the top 4 on his team for run value created versus the slider so I expect him to come along as the season goes along.
Let me know what you think of the play! I'll also be putting money down on him to hit a home run tonight.
Entree (1u) - Rowdy Tellez (MIL) OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+105 DK)
Just like last night, this is a market I don't normally bet but as I was looking through the starting pitchers for tonight, I fell in love with the matchup Tellez has tonight versus Nick Pivetta of the Boston Red Sox. For starters, Tellez is averaging a .340 weighted on-base average and .280 ISO versus right handed pitchers this season. That ISO number is fantastic. He's also supporting a 19% strikeout rate versus righties, which is one of the lowest on the team.
When you look at Pivetta's splits, there is a significant gap between how well he allows lefties to hit compared to how he controls righties. He allows a .344 weighted on-base average and a .210 ISO versus lefties this season, which matchups with Tellez's numbers versus righties. Tellez has also reached this 2 hits, runs, and RBIs combined number in 10 out of 17 games this season.
Pivetta throws a 4-seam, curveball, and slider for his pitch mix. Tellez has a .430 weighted on-base average and .667 slugging versus the 4-seam. He's seen 25 curveballs this season and absolutely crushed the ball when shown it. He's rocking a 1.117 weighted on-base average, a low 16.7 strikeout percentage, and a 2.400 slugging, which isn't sustainable, but is insane numbers through 17 games. He has struggled with the slider but Pivetta throws it the 3rd most and last season he finished in the top 4 on his team for run value created versus the slider so I expect him to come along as the season goes along.
Let me know what you think of the play! I'll also be putting money down on him to hit a home run tonight.
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