Entrée (1u) - Padres @ Diamondbacks Yes Run First Inning (-135 MGM)
I might be too hyped about the return of Fernando Tatis tonight but there is just so much to love about the offensive firepower this Padres team possessed before his return and now even more with him back. It's been a minute since he's played a major league game but he's been getting some work with minor league before he was able to return to action in the MLB. This bet is for a run in the first inning because I think the top 4-5 batters for both teams have a significant chance of doing damage versus their opposing pitchers tonight.
For the Padres, they face Ryne Nelson. The Padres should have 4 lefties and 5 righties batting tonight. He has a slightly higher strikeout percentage versus lefties but the real advantages is walks. He's walking a lefty 10.9% compared to only 5.3% for righties. He gets to face up against Soto who has a 22.1% walk rate versus right-handed pitchers and is probably the most disciplined player in the league. Other lefties like Cronenworth, Grisham, and Carpenter all have walk rates of over 10.5%. On the other side he faces right handed batters like Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr, and Xander Bogaerts, who are all guys who have a .350 or better batting average on balls that are in play. Nelson doesn't strikeout righties much as he's 29th percentile in strikeouts per inning and 15th percentile in swinging strike percentage. Nelson throws a 4-seam, slider, and changeup, which are 3 pitches that Tatis, Machado, and Soto have hit very well over their last 3 seasons.
For the D-backs, Wacha has allowed 11 runs in 3 starts on 19 hits. He didn't allow a run versus the Braves on the 8th, which is surprising considering how good the Braves are offensively but he turned around and allowed 7 runs recently to the Brewers. The D-backs are filled with lefties in this matchup with 6 projected starters but I'm intrigued by the righties, specifically Walker and Gurriel. They both are .319 or higher for weight on-base average versus right handed pitchers. They both have an under 20% strikeout rate and Wacha is striking out righties at a 18.2% rate. Additionally, he's allowing a .361 weighted on-base average versus righties. However, He walks lefties more than righties and he's allowing a higher weighted on-base average at .477 this season but that's only with 5 innings pitched compared to 11 innings versus righties. His slugging rates are high versus both righties and lefties being at .773 for lefties and .512 versus righties. The Diamondbacks as a team have a low 19.5 strikeout rate versus right handed pitchers. The number is higher for left-handed hitters but that's mainly due to the majority of their lineup being lefties.
I think there is so much anticipation around this game with Tatis returning and I think with his firepower alongside Soto's discipline at the plate and then dealing with Machado, Bogaerts, and more, there is a likelihood that a run is scored before the first 6 outs. With how baseball is, I'm not predicting it to be scored by the Padres because the Diamondbacks can easily do so. Down below is just the earned runs for Wacha but tail responsibly and if you aren't buying the hype, don't bet the game. 
Entrée (1u) - Padres @ Diamondbacks Yes Run First Inning (-135 MGM)
I might be too hyped about the return of Fernando Tatis tonight but there is just so much to love about the offensive firepower this Padres team possessed before his return and now even more with him back. It's been a minute since he's played a major league game but he's been getting some work with minor league before he was able to return to action in the MLB. This bet is for a run in the first inning because I think the top 4-5 batters for both teams have a significant chance of doing damage versus their opposing pitchers tonight.
For the Padres, they face Ryne Nelson. The Padres should have 4 lefties and 5 righties batting tonight. He has a slightly higher strikeout percentage versus lefties but the real advantages is walks. He's walking a lefty 10.9% compared to only 5.3% for righties. He gets to face up against Soto who has a 22.1% walk rate versus right-handed pitchers and is probably the most disciplined player in the league. Other lefties like Cronenworth, Grisham, and Carpenter all have walk rates of over 10.5%. On the other side he faces right handed batters like Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr, and Xander Bogaerts, who are all guys who have a .350 or better batting average on balls that are in play. Nelson doesn't strikeout righties much as he's 29th percentile in strikeouts per inning and 15th percentile in swinging strike percentage. Nelson throws a 4-seam, slider, and changeup, which are 3 pitches that Tatis, Machado, and Soto have hit very well over their last 3 seasons.
For the D-backs, Wacha has allowed 11 runs in 3 starts on 19 hits. He didn't allow a run versus the Braves on the 8th, which is surprising considering how good the Braves are offensively but he turned around and allowed 7 runs recently to the Brewers. The D-backs are filled with lefties in this matchup with 6 projected starters but I'm intrigued by the righties, specifically Walker and Gurriel. They both are .319 or higher for weight on-base average versus right handed pitchers. They both have an under 20% strikeout rate and Wacha is striking out righties at a 18.2% rate. Additionally, he's allowing a .361 weighted on-base average versus righties. However, He walks lefties more than righties and he's allowing a higher weighted on-base average at .477 this season but that's only with 5 innings pitched compared to 11 innings versus righties. His slugging rates are high versus both righties and lefties being at .773 for lefties and .512 versus righties. The Diamondbacks as a team have a low 19.5 strikeout rate versus right handed pitchers. The number is higher for left-handed hitters but that's mainly due to the majority of their lineup being lefties.
I think there is so much anticipation around this game with Tatis returning and I think with his firepower alongside Soto's discipline at the plate and then dealing with Machado, Bogaerts, and more, there is a likelihood that a run is scored before the first 6 outs. With how baseball is, I'm not predicting it to be scored by the Padres because the Diamondbacks can easily do so. Down below is just the earned runs for Wacha but tail responsibly and if you aren't buying the hype, don't bet the game.
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