Entrée (1u) - Blue Jays @ Astros OVER 4.5 F5 Total (-129 Barstool)
These two teams are starting two pitchers who I would normally avoid betting against but this season has gotten off to a rough start for one of them and the other only has one start under his belt and it wasn't the greatest of performances. That pitcher is Luis Garcia for the Houston Astros.
He pitched on the 8th versus the Minnesota Twins and allowed 4 runs on 6 hits allowed, while only recording 4 strikeouts. Garcia faces a Blue Jays team tonight who are 21st in strikeout rate and only have a 23.5% strikeout rate when facing a right handed pitcher. The Blue Jays average a .326 weighted on-base average versus righties and the Blue Jays are expected to start 6 who hit right-handed. He only faces 3 lefties but those are Belt, Varsho, and Kiermaier. Garcia is allowing a .417 batting average and a 5.75 xFIP to lefties this season and he's allowing a .273 batting average and a 4.38 xFIP to righties. You might think that he has the advantage since he's better versus righties but this Blue Jays has a TON of pop. They finished 3rd last season in both weighted runs created and on-base percentage. They've started off this season in 4th in weighted runs created and 10th in on-base percentage.
The pitcher I'm mainly attacking here is Jose Berrios and his awful start to the season. He's allowed 15 hits on 12 earned runs in two games. That amounts to a 7.98 ERA and is allowing at least a .303 batting average to both lefties and righties. He's really struggled on the road. Amounting a 11.17 ERA on 9 innings pitched on the road. He's allowed a .349 batting average on the road with a .410 weighted on-base average. Houston is averaging a .306 weighted on-base average versus righties this season and they're putting out a lineup with 7 right-handed batters.
Both teams are averaging a combined 5 runs in the first 5 innings, which isn't great but both teams finished in the top 4 for runs scored in the first 5 innings. Tons of firepower tonight with two pitchers who haven't found their grove yet. They may tonight or they may not. We will see!
Entrée (1u) - Blue Jays @ Astros OVER 4.5 F5 Total (-129 Barstool)
These two teams are starting two pitchers who I would normally avoid betting against but this season has gotten off to a rough start for one of them and the other only has one start under his belt and it wasn't the greatest of performances. That pitcher is Luis Garcia for the Houston Astros.
He pitched on the 8th versus the Minnesota Twins and allowed 4 runs on 6 hits allowed, while only recording 4 strikeouts. Garcia faces a Blue Jays team tonight who are 21st in strikeout rate and only have a 23.5% strikeout rate when facing a right handed pitcher. The Blue Jays average a .326 weighted on-base average versus righties and the Blue Jays are expected to start 6 who hit right-handed. He only faces 3 lefties but those are Belt, Varsho, and Kiermaier. Garcia is allowing a .417 batting average and a 5.75 xFIP to lefties this season and he's allowing a .273 batting average and a 4.38 xFIP to righties. You might think that he has the advantage since he's better versus righties but this Blue Jays has a TON of pop. They finished 3rd last season in both weighted runs created and on-base percentage. They've started off this season in 4th in weighted runs created and 10th in on-base percentage.
The pitcher I'm mainly attacking here is Jose Berrios and his awful start to the season. He's allowed 15 hits on 12 earned runs in two games. That amounts to a 7.98 ERA and is allowing at least a .303 batting average to both lefties and righties. He's really struggled on the road. Amounting a 11.17 ERA on 9 innings pitched on the road. He's allowed a .349 batting average on the road with a .410 weighted on-base average. Houston is averaging a .306 weighted on-base average versus righties this season and they're putting out a lineup with 7 right-handed batters.
Both teams are averaging a combined 5 runs in the first 5 innings, which isn't great but both teams finished in the top 4 for runs scored in the first 5 innings. Tons of firepower tonight with two pitchers who haven't found their grove yet. They may tonight or they may not. We will see!
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