Pick #3: Rangers 1st 3 Innings Money Line(-200)
I should stick to my lane but, there is no Orioles game tonight and this one is calling my name. I'm actually somewhat ignoring the opposing pitcher for this pick which could be my doom but, there is a lot to like in the first three innings(F3) for Texas.
For starters, the Royals are not a very plate disciplined team. They are bottom three in pitches per plate appearance and top five in strikeouts. deGrom is a strikeout pitcher. He's tied for 5th in the league with 27 Ks in 3 starts and is second in the league in K/9 at 14.6. He's been a little unpredictable this season, getting kinda rocked in his first outing but, he's settled down to only allow three earned runs in his last 13 innings pitched. The Rangers have also had the lead after the first three innings on both of his last two games. I expect him to keep the KC bats quiet early.
The Texas offense is also good to start games. They have scored in the F3 in seven of their last eight games and have been either tied for the lead or in the lead in six of those. Over that span, they are averaging 2.13 runs in the F3...and that includes yesterday where they were scoreless through the F3 but exploded for nine runs late.
Expect deGrom to keep the Royals in check for a while. As shown below, he's got a pretty good record against them, allowing a .259 BA. Lyles who takes the mound against the Rangers hasn't faired quite as well posting a .286 BA against. Sample sizes are small and odds aren't great but, I'm locked in.
Pick #3: Rangers 1st 3 Innings Money Line(-200)
For starters, the Royals are not a very plate disciplined team. They are bottom three in pitches per plate appearance and top five in strikeouts. deGrom is a strikeout pitcher. He's tied for 5th in the league with 27 Ks in 3 starts and is second in the league in K/9 at 14.6. He's been a little unpredictable this season, getting kinda rocked in his first outing but, he's settled down to only allow three earned runs in his last 13 innings pitched. The Rangers have also had the lead after the first three innings on both of his last two games. I expect him to keep the KC bats quiet early.
The Texas offense is also good to start games. They have scored in the F3 in seven of their last eight games and have been either tied for the lead or in the lead in six of those. Over that span, they are averaging 2.13 runs in the F3...and that includes yesterday where they were scoreless through the F3 but exploded for nine runs late.
Expect deGrom to keep the Royals in check for a while. As shown below, he's got a pretty good record against them, allowing a .259 BA. Lyles who takes the mound against the Rangers hasn't faired quite as well posting a .286 BA against. Sample sizes are small and odds aren't great but, I'm locked in.
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