Entree (1u) - Los Angeles Dodgers F5 -0.5 (-135 MGM)
The Dodgers took care of the Diamondbacks last night and were able to hold a 3 run lead after 5 innings. This prop is more about the pitching matchup rather than the Dodgers offense giving us a ton of runs to clear the prop. The good thing about this is that Kershaw already has a pitching start under his belt this season versus the Diamondbacks. So he's familiar with the players and he's getting used to these new rule changes. In that start, he struck out 8 batters and only allowed 1 run off 4 hits. The Diamondbacks are projected to put out a starting lineup that includes 7 right handed batters. Believe it or not, even though Kershaw is a left-handed pitcher, he was absolutely DOMINANT last season vs right-handed batters. He allowed a .198 batting average with only a .238 weighted on-base average.
The Diamondbacks, like many other teams in the league, have players who can put some power behind a ball. The biggest reason for why I pivoted to this prop bet instead of playing the Diamondbacks under for the first 5 innings is because of the prop being set at 1.5. That line leaves little to no room for error on Kershaw. This prop allows flexibility with runs allowed but does involve pressure on the Dodgers offense to score while Kershaw is trying to restrain them from scoring. The Dodgers led the league last season in runs throughout the first 5 innings and rightfully so, they're 2nd to start out this season. Even though they lost Trea Turner to the Phillies, they added pop in JD Martinez and we've seen a few other guys like Will Smith start the season out brilliantly. The Diamondbacks are also the worst first 5 scoring team in baseball right now and they finished last season for 12th worst average.
With the Diamondbacks being the worst first 5 offense in baseball so far and them ranking 25th in both weighted runs created and on-base percentage versus left-handed pitchers, it's hard for me to stay off of the Dodgers to be simply leading this game by 1 run after 5 innings are played. The graph shown below is for Kershaw's earned runs as this WILL play a factor in whether or not the Dodgers can get the job done for us tonight!
Entree (1u) - Los Angeles Dodgers F5 -0.5 (-135 MGM)
The Dodgers took care of the Diamondbacks last night and were able to hold a 3 run lead after 5 innings. This prop is more about the pitching matchup rather than the Dodgers offense giving us a ton of runs to clear the prop. The good thing about this is that Kershaw already has a pitching start under his belt this season versus the Diamondbacks. So he's familiar with the players and he's getting used to these new rule changes. In that start, he struck out 8 batters and only allowed 1 run off 4 hits. The Diamondbacks are projected to put out a starting lineup that includes 7 right handed batters. Believe it or not, even though Kershaw is a left-handed pitcher, he was absolutely DOMINANT last season vs right-handed batters. He allowed a .198 batting average with only a .238 weighted on-base average.
The Diamondbacks, like many other teams in the league, have players who can put some power behind a ball. The biggest reason for why I pivoted to this prop bet instead of playing the Diamondbacks under for the first 5 innings is because of the prop being set at 1.5. That line leaves little to no room for error on Kershaw. This prop allows flexibility with runs allowed but does involve pressure on the Dodgers offense to score while Kershaw is trying to restrain them from scoring. The Dodgers led the league last season in runs throughout the first 5 innings and rightfully so, they're 2nd to start out this season. Even though they lost Trea Turner to the Phillies, they added pop in JD Martinez and we've seen a few other guys like Will Smith start the season out brilliantly. The Diamondbacks are also the worst first 5 scoring team in baseball right now and they finished last season for 12th worst average.
With the Diamondbacks being the worst first 5 offense in baseball so far and them ranking 25th in both weighted runs created and on-base percentage versus left-handed pitchers, it's hard for me to stay off of the Dodgers to be simply leading this game by 1 run after 5 innings are played. The graph shown below is for Kershaw's earned runs as this WILL play a factor in whether or not the Dodgers can get the job done for us tonight!
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