1u - SGA O 30.5 pts (-125, DK)
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The Thunder are currently the 10 seed in the West, and have no room for error. In a huge game against a star-studded Phoenix team, OKC's star will have to shine brighter. Shai is the go to guy for a young and talented team. In big games, your best players have to show up. I think SGA is set up in a surprisingly good matchup in a game where he has to score big for his team to go home with a win.
PHO allows the 6th most points to SG this season, but more importantly, allow the 3rd most FTA per game L10. This is a huge part of why this matchup is promising because L12 SGA avg 10.9 FTM on 12.3 FTA. Shai should be able to eat, sleep, and live at the free throw line tonight. In his last game vs PHO, SGA shot 19 FTA, making 16 of them. I fully expect Shai to get to the line and shoot at least 13 FTA, for AT LEAST 12 easy points. That leaves only 19 points for Shai to get otherwise. L12 SGA avg 11.2 FGM (almost all 2pt), which is 22.4 pts in field goals. 22.4 + 12 = 34.4 expected points. This is completely within the realm of possibility for one of the best players in the NBA.
In his last 12 games, SGA has avg 33.9 pts, which is much higher than his line and his season avg of 31.4. He has gone over this line in 9 of his L12, scoring 39, 31, 27, 30, 31, 40, 29, 35, 35, 33, 38, and 39. He hasn't even scored less than 27 recently. That is insane. This kid is playing at as high a level as anyone in the NBA. His last game against PHO was a 40 point explosion and as I mentioned, 16 of those points came easy at the stripe.
Josh Giddey and Jalen Williams are good second and 3rd threats, but neither of them even avg 15 FGA. SGA avg 20.4. SGA is clearly the go to guy on this team and in a game where his team will probably be trailing for a large portion of it, he should shoot even more than 20 times. There is no need to overthink this. For a guy who has scored 31 or more points in 38 of 65 (58.5%) games this year, 30.5 suddenly doesn't seem too far out of reach. I am confident that SGA can get it done for his team and for us.
1u - SGA O 30.5 pts (-125, DK)
The Thunder are currently the 10 seed in the West, and have no room for error. In a huge game against a star-studded Phoenix team, OKC's star will have to shine brighter. Shai is the go to guy for a young and talented team. In big games, your best players have to show up. I think SGA is set up in a surprisingly good matchup in a game where he has to score big for his team to go home with a win.
PHO allows the 6th most points to SG this season, but more importantly, allow the 3rd most FTA per game L10. This is a huge part of why this matchup is promising because L12 SGA avg 10.9 FTM on 12.3 FTA. Shai should be able to eat, sleep, and live at the free throw line tonight. In his last game vs PHO, SGA shot 19 FTA, making 16 of them. I fully expect Shai to get to the line and shoot at least 13 FTA, for AT LEAST 12 easy points. That leaves only 19 points for Shai to get otherwise. L12 SGA avg 11.2 FGM (almost all 2pt), which is 22.4 pts in field goals. 22.4 + 12 = 34.4 expected points. This is completely within the realm of possibility for one of the best players in the NBA.
In his last 12 games, SGA has avg 33.9 pts, which is much higher than his line and his season avg of 31.4. He has gone over this line in 9 of his L12, scoring 39, 31, 27, 30, 31, 40, 29, 35, 35, 33, 38, and 39. He hasn't even scored less than 27 recently. That is insane. This kid is playing at as high a level as anyone in the NBA. His last game against PHO was a 40 point explosion and as I mentioned, 16 of those points came easy at the stripe.
Josh Giddey and Jalen Williams are good second and 3rd threats, but neither of them even avg 15 FGA. SGA avg 20.4. SGA is clearly the go to guy on this team and in a game where his team will probably be trailing for a large portion of it, he should shoot even more than 20 times. There is no need to overthink this. For a guy who has scored 31 or more points in 38 of 65 (58.5%) games this year, 30.5 suddenly doesn't seem too far out of reach. I am confident that SGA can get it done for his team and for us.
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