Pick 9: SAS vs GSW o62.5 1Q Total Points (-102)
As general advice for newer bettors, don't over-extend yourself with player props on days like today in the NBA. There's a huge slate of games today, and the prop lines in general are quite sharp. With only two games being played yesterday, oddsmakers had a lot of time to create the prop lines today. They also were able to get a lot of the lines out yesterday, which allows far more time than usual for the market to cause line adjustments, resulting in sharper lines, and less value for us. Lines like this 1st quarter total, typically come out later on during the day, and allows us to get it while we have an edge.
That being said, this particular line is especially attractive even on normal slate days. Few reasons for this:
1. The two teams in this matchup play at an absolutely blistering pace. They played in January, and that game was played at a pace of 110.5. That's a massive number. This game is projected at a pace of 102.2, which is the fastest pace on the slate tonight. The total for the full game is set at 242.5.
2. Both Golden State and San Antonio hit the 1Q over at a high percentage. SAS is 46-29-1 to the over on the season in the 1st quarter. They're also 4-1 in their last 5, so the tank-a-thon that is the Spurs' season hasn't really effected their play in the 1st relating to the total. Golden State is 44-32-1 to the over on the season as well.
3. We know about the Warriors offense, and how lethal they can be. But the Spurs are actually not as terrible on offense as most of the world believes. They're bad, but not as bad as what you would assume by looking at their record. The problem for the Spurs is that they don't guard anyone. Ever. Unsurprisingly, they allow their opponent to score more points in the 1st quarter than any other team in the league. They rank 30th in Opp Points Scored in the 1st.
What is slightly more surprising (but still not really surprising) is that Golden State is actually just 3 spots behind them, allowing the 4th most Opp Points Scored in the 1st. As good as the offense is for the Warriors, their issue as always been defense. And this year they are especially bad in the 1st quarter. Which is great for our bet.
In my opinion, the value in this play really lies in the defenses (or lack thereof) of both teams. Essentially, we have two extremely fast-paced teams that only play offense, which is obviously very favorable to the over in any situation. Even full-game over would be attractive if there wasn't such a strong possibility of a blowout.
Of course there is a slight possibility that the Spurs come out and miss every shot, but at -120 or better, this is a profitable play. Currently FanDuel has it at -102, which is the best on the market at time of posting.
My Pick: SAS vs GSW o62.5 1Q Total (-102)
Pick 9: SAS vs GSW o62.5 1Q Total Points (-102)
As general advice for newer bettors, don't over-extend yourself with player props on days like today in the NBA. There's a huge slate of games today, and the prop lines in general are quite sharp. With only two games being played yesterday, oddsmakers had a lot of time to create the prop lines today. They also were able to get a lot of the lines out yesterday, which allows far more time than usual for the market to cause line adjustments, resulting in sharper lines, and less value for us. Lines like this 1st quarter total, typically come out later on during the day, and allows us to get it while we have an edge.
That being said, this particular line is especially attractive even on normal slate days. Few reasons for this:
1. The two teams in this matchup play at an absolutely blistering pace. They played in January, and that game was played at a pace of 110.5. That's a massive number. This game is projected at a pace of 102.2, which is the fastest pace on the slate tonight. The total for the full game is set at 242.5.
2. Both Golden State and San Antonio hit the 1Q over at a high percentage. SAS is 46-29-1 to the over on the season in the 1st quarter. They're also 4-1 in their last 5, so the tank-a-thon that is the Spurs' season hasn't really effected their play in the 1st relating to the total. Golden State is 44-32-1 to the over on the season as well.
3. We know about the Warriors offense, and how lethal they can be. But the Spurs are actually not as terrible on offense as most of the world believes. They're bad, but not as bad as what you would assume by looking at their record. The problem for the Spurs is that they don't guard anyone. Ever. Unsurprisingly, they allow their opponent to score more points in the 1st quarter than any other team in the league. They rank 30th in Opp Points Scored in the 1st.
What is slightly more surprising (but still not really surprising) is that Golden State is actually just 3 spots behind them, allowing the 4th most Opp Points Scored in the 1st. As good as the offense is for the Warriors, their issue as always been defense. And this year they are especially bad in the 1st quarter. Which is great for our bet.
In my opinion, the value in this play really lies in the defenses (or lack thereof) of both teams. Essentially, we have two extremely fast-paced teams that only play offense, which is obviously very favorable to the over in any situation. Even full-game over would be attractive if there wasn't such a strong possibility of a blowout.
Of course there is a slight possibility that the Spurs come out and miss every shot, but at -120 or better, this is a profitable play. Currently FanDuel has it at -102, which is the best on the market at time of posting.
My Pick: SAS vs GSW o62.5 1Q Total (-102)
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