Pick 7: New Orleans Pelicans +2 1Q spread (-110)

An interesting spot here for sure, but the Pelicans have been absolutely crushing in the 1st quarter lately.

They are 5-0 ATS in the first quarter in their last 5 games. They’re 7-3 ATS 1Q in their last 10. 

Although it may look like a scary matchup on the road in Denver, who plays notably better at home, the Pelicans are 4-1 in their last 5 road games ATS in the 1st. NOP also just walked into Golden State (Denver’s fellow home juggernauts), and jumped out to an 11 point lead in the 1st in their last game played. Of course they’d go on to blow that game pretty bad, but we don’t care about that.

Denver hasn’t been the same since ASB. They’re just 4-6 ATS in the 1st in their last 10 games, and just 5-5 in their last 10 HOME games against the spread in the 1st. Whatever you think the reasoning is, the fact is that Denver hasn’t been the dominant team in the first halves lately. And I think this is a situation where we can take the hot team to continue their 1Q streak even if it is on the road vs Denver.

Would I take the Pelicans to win the game? Nope. In fact, I didn’t even take their +7 spread yesterday because I fear that they’ll just crumble in the 4th quarter. But they really have been coming out HOT especially in road games as we make our way down the stretch here. The one thing I can say about the Pelicans is that they want to win, and they want to make the playoffs. They come into every game fired up and that is huge in this last part of the season. What a statement it would be if they could hold the lead throughout the whole game, but I can’t count on that. I do feel great about the 1st quarter though. I’d take any points I could get for the Pels to cover in the 1st tonight.

My pick: NOP +2 (1Q) (-110) @ DK currently. I’d play to +.5/

There could be a good live betting opportunity if the Pelicans jump out to a lead in the first quarter/half.