1u - Deandre Ayton U 25.5 pts+reb (-113, FD)
In a primetime matchup between the Suns and T-Wolves, all eyes will be on two players returning from injuries: KAT and Kevin Durant. This was already a bad matchup for Ayton to begin with, and both of these additions to the starting lineups hurt his production. Ayton can sneakily slide under this line and nobody would notice because all of the focus is elsewhere, but don't miss your chance to fade the young center tonight.
If you look at the season as a whole, this may seem like a terrible bet. Ayton has shown explosiveness in both the points and rebound categories, scoring 34 double doubles, and even playing in multiple games with 20+ rebounds. Not only that, he has scored 25+ points 13 times this season. However, all of the odds are stacked against him tonight. Anything you can think of that would hinder Ayton's performance, is very much the case for this primetime matchup.
For starters, the awaited return of Kevin Durant to this Suns lineup will obviously cause a dip in Ayton's touches and shot frequency, as Durant is one of the most prolific scorers in NBA history. In three games played with Durant this year, Ayton has averaged only 10.7 points, compared to his 18.2 on the season. He went under this line in two of those game, and the one he went over was against the hornets. Literally any C could go over this line against a team as weak as the hornets. It's not hard. In the other two games where he went under, he only shot 6 and 4 times, scoring single digit points each time.
Another X factor in this matchup is KAT. Kat has already played 2 games since his return from injury, but his presence should make things harder for Ayton with his height. Even without KAT, the T-Wolves are still a tough matchup, allowing the 6th least reb to C L7, and 2nd least pts to C L7. Ayton played two games against the Wolves this year, one with KAT and one without. In the game with KAT, Ayton posted 9 pts and 6 reb, which is well below this line. In the game without KAT, Gobert still held him to 11 pts and 11 reb, still under the line, and remember, this was all without Durant on the floor. Having to deal with not one but two 7 footers this evening will be tough for Deandre.
While KAT does make Ayton's job harder, lets not forget about Gobert. In his career, Ayton has averaged 8.5 reb, which is a significant decrease from his avg this season of 10.1. Ayton this season has been held to single digit rebounds in 27 games this year, and in those 27, he went under this line in 20 of them. I think that Gobert alone has a good chance of holding Ayton under 10 reb, but then you throw KAT into the mix as well and this really starts to look impossible for Deandre Ayton.
There are so many things to look forward to in an exciting matchup tonight on primetime, but Deandre Ayton is just not one of them. I wouldn't be surprised to see Ayton go way under, possibly being held to single digit points and rebounds. Unfortunately for Ayton, the odds are stacked against this one, and while he is a great player, I am choosing to fade him tonight against the T-Wolves.
1u - Deandre Ayton U 25.5 pts+reb (-113, FD)
In a primetime matchup between the Suns and T-Wolves, all eyes will be on two players returning from injuries: KAT and Kevin Durant. This was already a bad matchup for Ayton to begin with, and both of these additions to the starting lineups hurt his production. Ayton can sneakily slide under this line and nobody would notice because all of the focus is elsewhere, but don't miss your chance to fade the young center tonight.
If you look at the season as a whole, this may seem like a terrible bet. Ayton has shown explosiveness in both the points and rebound categories, scoring 34 double doubles, and even playing in multiple games with 20+ rebounds. Not only that, he has scored 25+ points 13 times this season. However, all of the odds are stacked against him tonight. Anything you can think of that would hinder Ayton's performance, is very much the case for this primetime matchup.
For starters, the awaited return of Kevin Durant to this Suns lineup will obviously cause a dip in Ayton's touches and shot frequency, as Durant is one of the most prolific scorers in NBA history. In three games played with Durant this year, Ayton has averaged only 10.7 points, compared to his 18.2 on the season. He went under this line in two of those game, and the one he went over was against the hornets. Literally any C could go over this line against a team as weak as the hornets. It's not hard. In the other two games where he went under, he only shot 6 and 4 times, scoring single digit points each time.
Another X factor in this matchup is KAT. Kat has already played 2 games since his return from injury, but his presence should make things harder for Ayton with his height. Even without KAT, the T-Wolves are still a tough matchup, allowing the 6th least reb to C L7, and 2nd least pts to C L7. Ayton played two games against the Wolves this year, one with KAT and one without. In the game with KAT, Ayton posted 9 pts and 6 reb, which is well below this line. In the game without KAT, Gobert still held him to 11 pts and 11 reb, still under the line, and remember, this was all without Durant on the floor. Having to deal with not one but two 7 footers this evening will be tough for Deandre.
While KAT does make Ayton's job harder, lets not forget about Gobert. In his career, Ayton has averaged 8.5 reb, which is a significant decrease from his avg this season of 10.1. Ayton this season has been held to single digit rebounds in 27 games this year, and in those 27, he went under this line in 20 of them. I think that Gobert alone has a good chance of holding Ayton under 10 reb, but then you throw KAT into the mix as well and this really starts to look impossible for Deandre Ayton.
There are so many things to look forward to in an exciting matchup tonight on primetime, but Deandre Ayton is just not one of them. I wouldn't be surprised to see Ayton go way under, possibly being held to single digit points and rebounds. Unfortunately for Ayton, the odds are stacked against this one, and while he is a great player, I am choosing to fade him tonight against the T-Wolves.
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