1.1u - Kyrie Irving O 24.5 pts (-105, DK)
The Mavs have their backs against the wall. They made this big move to go get another superstar, went all in on winning a championship with Luka Doncic, and now they find themselves on the outside looking in. This has to work. This group has to pull it together if they want to squeeze into the playoff picture and make magic happen. This team has aspirations of making a deep playoff run with their star studded roster, but their playoffs doesn't start with everyone else. It starts now. Too many more losses and they won't even have the chance to make a run.
This is a great buy-low point for Kyrie's points line. In his last 3 games he has shot the ball 16, 15, and 11 times. On the season he averages 20 FGA and with the Mavs he is averaging 18.8 FGA. On top of that, Kyrie has shot a combined 25% (4-16) from 3 in his last 3 games, compared to his season average of 37.7%. Regression is inevitable for a player as talented as Kyrie. I expect him to shoot at least 18 times tonight, maybe more in such a big game. I also expect him to shoot much better from 3, probably somewhere around 35%, maybe 3-8 or better if we're lucky. At the end of the day, even if Irving has had 3 bad games in a row, he can turn it around at any point in the blink of an eye. This line is just way to low for a player with the resume of Kyrie Irving and someone who is averaging almost 27 points on the year.
This play may be hard to trust for some people because the 76ers defense is so good, especially vs point guards. On the season, they allow the 2nd least points and 3rd least 3 pointers to point guards. SInce 35.8% of Kyrie's points come from 3 pointers, and getting to the rim will be almost impossible with a lurking Joel Embiid, this is already looking grim for Irving. However, this is a very rare situation in which Kyrie is on a team where he is not the number one ball handler. With Luka Doncic and Kyrie on the same team, and both of them being so ball-dominant, it should throw a wrench in whatever plan Philly had to defend every other point guard so well.
If you put all of the stats aside, and just look at the basketball, let's be honest, Kyrie will manage. If Kyrie had bad games against all of the bad matchups he faced in his career, he wouldn't be the unstoppable scorer we have come to know him as. Players of Irving's caliber find ways to work around bad matchups. On top of that, Kyrie has history on his side. Historically, Irving has played at a very high level against the 76ers. In his last 8 games against them, he has averaged 30.3 points, scoring 30+ points 5 of those 8 times. This year alone Kyrie has averaged 31 points vs the 76ers.
A must win game for Dallas, a line that is way lower than it should be, and an opponent that for some reason brings out the best in Kyrie. I'm not saying the NBA is rigged, but if it was, this is how you take advantage of it. Kyrie Irving coming off of three bad games, thrust into the biggest game of the season so far, AND it's on prime time? Sign. Me. Up. I think that Kyrie has potential to not only reach this line, but smash it. Uncle Drew will be out to play tonight.
1.1u - Kyrie Irving O 24.5 pts (-105, DK)
The Mavs have their backs against the wall. They made this big move to go get another superstar, went all in on winning a championship with Luka Doncic, and now they find themselves on the outside looking in. This has to work. This group has to pull it together if they want to squeeze into the playoff picture and make magic happen. This team has aspirations of making a deep playoff run with their star studded roster, but their playoffs doesn't start with everyone else. It starts now. Too many more losses and they won't even have the chance to make a run.
This is a great buy-low point for Kyrie's points line. In his last 3 games he has shot the ball 16, 15, and 11 times. On the season he averages 20 FGA and with the Mavs he is averaging 18.8 FGA. On top of that, Kyrie has shot a combined 25% (4-16) from 3 in his last 3 games, compared to his season average of 37.7%. Regression is inevitable for a player as talented as Kyrie. I expect him to shoot at least 18 times tonight, maybe more in such a big game. I also expect him to shoot much better from 3, probably somewhere around 35%, maybe 3-8 or better if we're lucky. At the end of the day, even if Irving has had 3 bad games in a row, he can turn it around at any point in the blink of an eye. This line is just way to low for a player with the resume of Kyrie Irving and someone who is averaging almost 27 points on the year.
This play may be hard to trust for some people because the 76ers defense is so good, especially vs point guards. On the season, they allow the 2nd least points and 3rd least 3 pointers to point guards. SInce 35.8% of Kyrie's points come from 3 pointers, and getting to the rim will be almost impossible with a lurking Joel Embiid, this is already looking grim for Irving. However, this is a very rare situation in which Kyrie is on a team where he is not the number one ball handler. With Luka Doncic and Kyrie on the same team, and both of them being so ball-dominant, it should throw a wrench in whatever plan Philly had to defend every other point guard so well.
If you put all of the stats aside, and just look at the basketball, let's be honest, Kyrie will manage. If Kyrie had bad games against all of the bad matchups he faced in his career, he wouldn't be the unstoppable scorer we have come to know him as. Players of Irving's caliber find ways to work around bad matchups. On top of that, Kyrie has history on his side. Historically, Irving has played at a very high level against the 76ers. In his last 8 games against them, he has averaged 30.3 points, scoring 30+ points 5 of those 8 times. This year alone Kyrie has averaged 31 points vs the 76ers.
A must win game for Dallas, a line that is way lower than it should be, and an opponent that for some reason brings out the best in Kyrie. I'm not saying the NBA is rigged, but if it was, this is how you take advantage of it. Kyrie Irving coming off of three bad games, thrust into the biggest game of the season so far, AND it's on prime time? Sign. Me. Up. I think that Kyrie has potential to not only reach this line, but smash it. Uncle Drew will be out to play tonight.
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