1u - Fred VanVleet O 28.5 pts+ast (-110, DK)
Miami is the 7th seed in the East heading into Toronto to take on the 9th seed Raptors. Both teams are fighting and clawing for as many wins as they can get to keep them in the play-in game. Not to mention both of them are very capable of passing up a weaker Nets team for the 6th spot. Needless to say, both teams will be playing to their full potential, and starters should play full minutes plus some. With two defenses who are so good, it is tough to bet on offense because there is always potential that your player gets locked up and sets a season low in any stat category.
Miami, although a stifling defense, as of recently have been a little more average. In their L15, Miami allows the 14th most points and 13th least ast to PG. This are pretty average numbers for a defense that is widely agreed to be one of the best. However, Miami holds opposing C to the 3rd least points over this same stretch, which is why VanVleet has to have a decent night for the Raptors to pull out a win here. Finally, the Heat allow the 2nd most 3PM to PG in their last 7 games. If FVV does go over this line, 3 pointers will be a crucial part of his statline.
Miami opponents avg 15.4 3PM over the Heats L7. 46.8% of FVV's points come from 3 pointers, nearly half. This is perfect timing as well because Fred has been heating up as of recently. His 3P% on the year is 35.1%, but in his L10 he has a 3P% of 40.4%. For reference, Pat Bev shot 50% and made 5-10 three pointers against this team, so surely FVV can manage. Over those same 10 games, he has avg 22.2 points, 3.6 3PM, and has been over this line in 6 of 10. Not only that, but with FVV there is always a chance that points take care of this line easily, and any assists would just be icing on top, because VanVleet scored 28+ points in 4 of those 6.
As far as assists go, Miami allows the most assists in the league over their last 7 games. Miami is one of those teams who will make you work for your points. They aren't going to give up any easy isolation buckets, thus forcing lots of assists from the opponent. FVV has been dropping dimes recently as well, averaging 8.6 ast in his L10. Miami opponents avg 30.4 ast L7. FVV has an %AST of 27.4%, meaning that he accounts for 27.4% of his teams assists while he's on the floor. 27.4% of 30.4 is 8.3, so FVV is set to out-do his season avg of 7.0 ast yet again tonight.
If we're lucky, FVV will cruise over this line with points only. If were not so lucky, I still feel confident that VanVleet can manage 7-8 ast to put him over the edge. I also like the value in this play because on FanDuel the line is 29.5 for only -105. -110 is not to far from -105, and getting that line even one point lower is such an advantage. This is an important game, and in important games, good players step up. I can't wait to watch FVV crush this line on national TV.
1u - Fred VanVleet O 28.5 pts+ast (-110, DK)
Miami, although a stifling defense, as of recently have been a little more average. In their L15, Miami allows the 14th most points and 13th least ast to PG. This are pretty average numbers for a defense that is widely agreed to be one of the best. However, Miami holds opposing C to the 3rd least points over this same stretch, which is why VanVleet has to have a decent night for the Raptors to pull out a win here. Finally, the Heat allow the 2nd most 3PM to PG in their last 7 games. If FVV does go over this line, 3 pointers will be a crucial part of his statline.
Miami opponents avg 15.4 3PM over the Heats L7. 46.8% of FVV's points come from 3 pointers, nearly half. This is perfect timing as well because Fred has been heating up as of recently. His 3P% on the year is 35.1%, but in his L10 he has a 3P% of 40.4%. For reference, Pat Bev shot 50% and made 5-10 three pointers against this team, so surely FVV can manage. Over those same 10 games, he has avg 22.2 points, 3.6 3PM, and has been over this line in 6 of 10. Not only that, but with FVV there is always a chance that points take care of this line easily, and any assists would just be icing on top, because VanVleet scored 28+ points in 4 of those 6.
As far as assists go, Miami allows the most assists in the league over their last 7 games. Miami is one of those teams who will make you work for your points. They aren't going to give up any easy isolation buckets, thus forcing lots of assists from the opponent. FVV has been dropping dimes recently as well, averaging 8.6 ast in his L10. Miami opponents avg 30.4 ast L7. FVV has an %AST of 27.4%, meaning that he accounts for 27.4% of his teams assists while he's on the floor. 27.4% of 30.4 is 8.3, so FVV is set to out-do his season avg of 7.0 ast yet again tonight.
If we're lucky, FVV will cruise over this line with points only. If were not so lucky, I still feel confident that VanVleet can manage 7-8 ast to put him over the edge. I also like the value in this play because on FanDuel the line is 29.5 for only -105. -110 is not to far from -105, and getting that line even one point lower is such an advantage. This is an important game, and in important games, good players step up. I can't wait to watch FVV crush this line on national TV.
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