This is a prop that will likely only have value until KD comes back, so get it now. Normally, I'm not a huge fan of plays like this. But Terrance Ross has massive upside tonight vs Utah.
Ross's points line is set at 7.5 right now at FD. While it is significant how variable Ross's minutes have been since being traded, I think that he should see enough shots today to get over this mark.
This is a late post, as the game starts in like an hour, so I'll be short here. But there's two reasons I really like this prop tonight:
1. Although Ayton returns tonight, Ross has proven to be at least effective enough to put up 8 points in games with Ayton. I believe the real deciding factor for Ross is the status of KD. In the last 12 games where both Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton have played, but KD was OUT, Ross has been 8/12 to this line. A hit rate of 75%. However, in those games, he's put up performances 15, 30 (these are the last two games), 18, 24 and 16. All of which are significantly higher than this line. So, I'm really hoping we can get an alternate line on this. Additionally, 2 of his 4 misses in that stretch were against MIL, a very tough matchup, especially when he only took a COMBINED total of 8 shots in those two games.
2. Utah SUCKS against guards. Over the last 15 games, Utah has allowed the 2nd most points SG and the 4th most points to PGs. They also allow the 4th most 3PM to SGs in that span. Threes are the big key here. All Ross needs is a few good looks tonight and he'll get there. That wouldn't require many minutes at all.
3. Even though Lauri has been ruled as "Available" tonight, there is a lot of potential for some garbage time minutes for Ross here. The Suns could easily go into Utah and smoke them, leading to some big minutes for Ross.That would guarantee that this prop hits.
So although he isn't a big-minutes player, which I normally try to avoid, he doesn't need big minutes to hit this mark. Especially coming off of 15 and 30-point games, I would be surprised to see him miss this.
My Pick: T. Ross o7.5 (-122) FanDuel. **LOOK FOR LADDERS PRE-TIP**
This is a prop that will likely only have value until KD comes back, so get it now. Normally, I'm not a huge fan of plays like this. But Terrance Ross has massive upside tonight vs Utah.
Ross's points line is set at 7.5 right now at FD. While it is significant how variable Ross's minutes have been since being traded, I think that he should see enough shots today to get over this mark.
This is a late post, as the game starts in like an hour, so I'll be short here. But there's two reasons I really like this prop tonight:
1. Although Ayton returns tonight, Ross has proven to be at least effective enough to put up 8 points in games with Ayton. I believe the real deciding factor for Ross is the status of KD. In the last 12 games where both Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton have played, but KD was OUT, Ross has been 8/12 to this line. A hit rate of 75%. However, in those games, he's put up performances 15, 30 (these are the last two games), 18, 24 and 16. All of which are significantly higher than this line. So, I'm really hoping we can get an alternate line on this. Additionally, 2 of his 4 misses in that stretch were against MIL, a very tough matchup, especially when he only took a COMBINED total of 8 shots in those two games.
2. Utah SUCKS against guards. Over the last 15 games, Utah has allowed the 2nd most points SG and the 4th most points to PGs. They also allow the 4th most 3PM to SGs in that span. Threes are the big key here. All Ross needs is a few good looks tonight and he'll get there. That wouldn't require many minutes at all.
3. Even though Lauri has been ruled as "Available" tonight, there is a lot of potential for some garbage time minutes for Ross here. The Suns could easily go into Utah and smoke them, leading to some big minutes for Ross.That would guarantee that this prop hits.
So although he isn't a big-minutes player, which I normally try to avoid, he doesn't need big minutes to hit this mark. Especially coming off of 15 and 30-point games, I would be surprised to see him miss this.
My Pick: T. Ross o7.5 (-122) FanDuel. **LOOK FOR LADDERS PRE-TIP**
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