1u - Jamal Murray O 6.5 ast (+106, FD)
Denver is just hopping from one top team to the next. Two nights ago they faced off against Giannis and the Bucks, and now they get Philadelphia. The only difference is Philadelphia is missing their MVP candidate: Joel Embiid. This missing piece in Philly's lineup is going to be the key to Jamal Murray cashing his over in assists for us.
Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic love to play their little two man game at the top of the key, and it is very effective. Without Philly's elite rim protector lurking in the paint, I expect Nikola Jokic to be the larger benefactor of this two man game in terms of points. Nikola Jokic is the two time reigning MVP and one of the most efficient shooters the game has ever seen. All Murray has to do is hand the ball off to him and he can make things happen. Even though Jokic loves to pass the ball and doesn't score as much as some of the leagues other top players, he should be very aware of the obvious mismatch he has against the opponent.
When Embiid got ruled out, I expected one of two things: this line to move to 7.5, or to a value more around -120 or -125. The books did neither. It is still sitting at 6.5, +106. I think the value on this play is insane. Murray has averaged 8.3 ast in his L6, and has scored 8+ 5 of those 6. The only game he went under this line was when he ended on the hook with 6. Even though Philly is a tough matchup for any PG, Murray has stepped up against tough in the past, dishing out 10 and 9 ast vs the Celtics and Bucks respectively, who are both top 5 in ast allowed.
Jamal should draw Philly's best defender, De'Anthony Melton, who is a very underrated defender and should give Murray fits, as he has been doing to PGs all season. While this should impact his scoring numbers, this should also force the ball out of Murray's hands and lead to more ast. Even though the 76ers are down their best player, I am not worried about this being a blowout. The 76ers have a very solid team all around. Murray has averaged 36.1 minutes per game L6, so his previous injury clearly has not been affecting him anymore.
The plus value on this play is too hard to ignore and Jamal is primed to carve up a defense that is vulnerable without good paint protection. My best guess at why this line was so low in the first place is because Philly is a tough matchup for PGs. However, with Embiid out the matchup becomes easier. I'm laying the money down confidently tonight. Go dish those dimes Jamal!
1u - Jamal Murray O 6.5 ast (+106, FD)
Denver is just hopping from one top team to the next. Two nights ago they faced off against Giannis and the Bucks, and now they get Philadelphia. The only difference is Philadelphia is missing their MVP candidate: Joel Embiid. This missing piece in Philly's lineup is going to be the key to Jamal Murray cashing his over in assists for us.
Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic love to play their little two man game at the top of the key, and it is very effective. Without Philly's elite rim protector lurking in the paint, I expect Nikola Jokic to be the larger benefactor of this two man game in terms of points. Nikola Jokic is the two time reigning MVP and one of the most efficient shooters the game has ever seen. All Murray has to do is hand the ball off to him and he can make things happen. Even though Jokic loves to pass the ball and doesn't score as much as some of the leagues other top players, he should be very aware of the obvious mismatch he has against the opponent.
When Embiid got ruled out, I expected one of two things: this line to move to 7.5, or to a value more around -120 or -125. The books did neither. It is still sitting at 6.5, +106. I think the value on this play is insane. Murray has averaged 8.3 ast in his L6, and has scored 8+ 5 of those 6. The only game he went under this line was when he ended on the hook with 6. Even though Philly is a tough matchup for any PG, Murray has stepped up against tough in the past, dishing out 10 and 9 ast vs the Celtics and Bucks respectively, who are both top 5 in ast allowed.
Jamal should draw Philly's best defender, De'Anthony Melton, who is a very underrated defender and should give Murray fits, as he has been doing to PGs all season. While this should impact his scoring numbers, this should also force the ball out of Murray's hands and lead to more ast. Even though the 76ers are down their best player, I am not worried about this being a blowout. The 76ers have a very solid team all around. Murray has averaged 36.1 minutes per game L6, so his previous injury clearly has not been affecting him anymore.
The plus value on this play is too hard to ignore and Jamal is primed to carve up a defense that is vulnerable without good paint protection. My best guess at why this line was so low in the first place is because Philly is a tough matchup for PGs. However, with Embiid out the matchup becomes easier. I'm laying the money down confidently tonight. Go dish those dimes Jamal!
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