K-State vs FAU tips off tonight just after 6PM EST, and it has all of the makings of an instant classic. I have done a full analysis on this game and have found a couple of huge edges to help you pick a side in this game.
When looking at this game, it's important to note what the most significant matchup advantages are for each team. Let's take a look at the Four Factors for this game.
When Florida Atlantic has the ball:
| Adj. Efficiency | 114.6 26 | 94.9 27 | 104.9 |
| Avg. Poss Length | 16.9 92 | 17.7 188 | 17.6 |
| Four Factors |
| Effective FG%: | 54.3 26 | 47.9 59 | 50.4 |
| Turnover %: | 16.5 67 | 20.7 53 | 18.2 |
| Off. Reb. %: | 31.1 95 | 29.9 248 | 28.5 |
| FTA/FGA: | 29.0 258 | 36.2 291 | 31.5 |
| Miscellaneous Components |
| 3P%: | 36.5 45 | 30.5 21 | 34.0 |
| 2P%: | 53.9 38 | 49.1 125 | 50.1 |
| FT%: | 71.5 192 | 69.4 63 | 71.6 |
| Block%: | 7.2 48 | 7.8 228 | 8.8 |
| Steal%: | 8.1 59 | 11.0 52 | 9.3 |
| Style Components |
| 3PA/FGA: | 44.0 35 | 36.8 163 | 37.3 |
| A/FGM: | 51.3 152 | 55.8 293 | 50.9 |
| Point Distribution (% of total points) |
| 3-Pointers: | 37.2 25 | 27.8 282 | 30.8 |
| 2-Pointers: | 46.7 298 | 51.4 160 | 50.9 |
| Free Throws: | 16.1 309 | 20.8 61 | 18.3 |
When KSU has the ball:
| Adj. Efficiency | 113.6 35 | 95.3 29 | 104.9 |
| Avg. Poss Length | 16.5 50 | 18.1 296 | 17.6 |
| Four Factors |
| Effective FG%: | 52.2 82 | 45.7 13 | 50.4 |
| Turnover %: | 19.4 263 | 17.9 179 | 18.2 |
| Off. Reb. %: | 30.4 122 | 25.5 58 | 28.5 |
| FTA/FGA: | 36.2 53 | 25.9 42 | 31.5 |
| Miscellaneous Components |
| 3P%: | 34.0 175 | 31.6 53 | 34.0 |
| 2P%: | 53.0 65 | 44.8 11 | 50.1 |
| FT%: | 75.0 60 | 74.5 310 | 71.6 |
| Block%: | 10.4 305 | 6.7 293 | 8.8 |
| Steal%: | 10.2 292 | 9.1 176 | 9.3 |
| Style Components |
| 3PA/FGA: | 36.0 229 | 34.7 95 | 37.3 |
| A/FGM: | 63.9 6 | 34.7 2 | 50.9 |
| Point Distribution (% of total points) |
| 3-Pointers: | 27.9 277 | 29.7 216 | 30.8 |
| 2-Pointers: | 51.5 158 | 52.8 111 | 50.9 |
| Free Throws: | 20.6 54 | 17.4 229 | 18.3 |
We can see here that FAU actually has a significant advantage here per KenPom ratings. Now, it's important to realize that these stats don't necessarily tell us who is a better team, obviously. it's important to realize the conference that K-State played in (Big 12) was the toughest conference in the country this year, while FAU's conference (CUSA) was mid.
So, I do expect FAU to have a slightly lower EFG% than what is shown here. KSU plays a very aggressive defense which is especially tight around the perimeter. Although the 3-point ball is a strong suit of FAU (ranking 45th nationally in 3P%), KSU allows a 3P% of just 30.5%, good for 21st in the nation. The perimeter defense will likely have a negative impact on FAU's EFG%, as 3-pointers have a large impact on EFG%. However, even if the impact is significant, that does not mean that FAU is out of the game. In fact, KSU has allowed an EFG% of greater than 50% in just 4 of their 9 losses this year. Meaning, FAU does not NEED to come in and shoot the lights out tonight, which is GREAT for the Owls.
HOWEVER, if FAU is able to shoot the ball well tonight, there is MASSIVE upside. If they start making 3s tonight, I really don't think there is any way that KSU can keep up. This is part of the reason I'm leaning towards FAU's ML tonight. One point for Owls.
FAU can afford to make 3s at a lower rate tonight because of the simple fact that KSU will give extra points to FAU throughout the game. KSU can't rebound on defense, they will be out-classed on the offensive glass today and FAU will have second chances galore, even if they are not knocking down shots at the same rate as usual. Another point for the Owls
K-State also puts opponents on the free throw line at a remarkable rate. As FAU generally struggles to get to the free line, this is a huge plus for them. KSU will likely put FAU on the free throw line far more than what they are used to. Free points are always great. But free points are even better when your offense is receiving a lot of them, and your defense is allowing very few. FAU's defense ranks 42nd in FT rate on defense. That's three points for FAU.
The final factor I want to address in this games analysis is the Turnover %. I personally believe that this will be the single most important factor in determining which team comes out on top tonight.
KSU has great ball movement, and they play a very unselfish game. They rank 6th in the country in A/FGM on offense, which will be a great matchup tonight vs the FAU defense which ranks 2nd in A/FGM. The problem that KSU has faced this year is that, with great ball movement comes lots of opportunity for turnovers. Turnovers have been the absolute death of KSU in their losses this year.
In KSU's 9 losses this year, they've had an offensive TO% of 20%+ in 7 of them. One of those misses was against Butler and their TO% was 19.4%.
If FAU is able to force turnovers at a 20-25% rate or higher tonight, it will all but lock them in for the W. When KSU turns the ball over, they lose. FAU is surely focusing on this in their defensive scheme tonight, and I expect to see a high-pressure, aggressive defense from the Owls tonight.
With this as part of their game plan, and an otherwise VERY solid defense in general, I'm putting the offensive efficiency for KSU to be closer to that of their games vs TCU. TCU has a similar profile to FAU on both sides of the ball. TCU went 2-1 vs KSU this year, with the key determinant being the TO%. In both wins they forced a 25+% TO% from KSU. In the game that KSU one, they turned the ball over at only a 20% rate. FAU has a better offense though, and are much better rebounders than TCU. So, I don't think they need a 25+% turnover rate. But they will need it to be at or around 20% to win this game.
All in all, I actually project FAU as a 2 point favorite here. And, if they can hit their shots, I could see a potential 7-8 point margin of victory for the Owls tonight.
I prefer the ML for this play, but would gladly take any points that I can get for FAU as well. I'm putting the offensive efficiency around 110 for Kansas State tonight. And FAU to be around 112.
I also project this game to be a higher paced, higher scoring game than does the consensus. I'm projecting about 73 possessions in this game, and a final score of FAU 82 - KSU 80
My Pick: FAU ML (+115), AND the total OVER 144
Follow on twitter! @TWBets_
K-State vs FAU tips off tonight just after 6PM EST, and it has all of the makings of an instant classic. I have done a full analysis on this game and have found a couple of huge edges to help you pick a side in this game.
When looking at this game, it's important to note what the most significant matchup advantages are for each team. Let's take a look at the Four Factors for this game.
When Florida Atlantic has the ball:
When KSU has the ball:
We can see here that FAU actually has a significant advantage here per KenPom ratings. Now, it's important to realize that these stats don't necessarily tell us who is a better team, obviously. it's important to realize the conference that K-State played in (Big 12) was the toughest conference in the country this year, while FAU's conference (CUSA) was mid.
So, I do expect FAU to have a slightly lower EFG% than what is shown here. KSU plays a very aggressive defense which is especially tight around the perimeter. Although the 3-point ball is a strong suit of FAU (ranking 45th nationally in 3P%), KSU allows a 3P% of just 30.5%, good for 21st in the nation. The perimeter defense will likely have a negative impact on FAU's EFG%, as 3-pointers have a large impact on EFG%. However, even if the impact is significant, that does not mean that FAU is out of the game. In fact, KSU has allowed an EFG% of greater than 50% in just 4 of their 9 losses this year. Meaning, FAU does not NEED to come in and shoot the lights out tonight, which is GREAT for the Owls.
HOWEVER, if FAU is able to shoot the ball well tonight, there is MASSIVE upside. If they start making 3s tonight, I really don't think there is any way that KSU can keep up. This is part of the reason I'm leaning towards FAU's ML tonight. One point for Owls.
FAU can afford to make 3s at a lower rate tonight because of the simple fact that KSU will give extra points to FAU throughout the game. KSU can't rebound on defense, they will be out-classed on the offensive glass today and FAU will have second chances galore, even if they are not knocking down shots at the same rate as usual. Another point for the Owls
K-State also puts opponents on the free throw line at a remarkable rate. As FAU generally struggles to get to the free line, this is a huge plus for them. KSU will likely put FAU on the free throw line far more than what they are used to. Free points are always great. But free points are even better when your offense is receiving a lot of them, and your defense is allowing very few. FAU's defense ranks 42nd in FT rate on defense. That's three points for FAU.
The final factor I want to address in this games analysis is the Turnover %. I personally believe that this will be the single most important factor in determining which team comes out on top tonight.
KSU has great ball movement, and they play a very unselfish game. They rank 6th in the country in A/FGM on offense, which will be a great matchup tonight vs the FAU defense which ranks 2nd in A/FGM. The problem that KSU has faced this year is that, with great ball movement comes lots of opportunity for turnovers. Turnovers have been the absolute death of KSU in their losses this year.
In KSU's 9 losses this year, they've had an offensive TO% of 20%+ in 7 of them. One of those misses was against Butler and their TO% was 19.4%.
If FAU is able to force turnovers at a 20-25% rate or higher tonight, it will all but lock them in for the W. When KSU turns the ball over, they lose. FAU is surely focusing on this in their defensive scheme tonight, and I expect to see a high-pressure, aggressive defense from the Owls tonight.
With this as part of their game plan, and an otherwise VERY solid defense in general, I'm putting the offensive efficiency for KSU to be closer to that of their games vs TCU. TCU has a similar profile to FAU on both sides of the ball. TCU went 2-1 vs KSU this year, with the key determinant being the TO%. In both wins they forced a 25+% TO% from KSU. In the game that KSU one, they turned the ball over at only a 20% rate. FAU has a better offense though, and are much better rebounders than TCU. So, I don't think they need a 25+% turnover rate. But they will need it to be at or around 20% to win this game.
All in all, I actually project FAU as a 2 point favorite here. And, if they can hit their shots, I could see a potential 7-8 point margin of victory for the Owls tonight.
I prefer the ML for this play, but would gladly take any points that I can get for FAU as well. I'm putting the offensive efficiency around 110 for Kansas State tonight. And FAU to be around 112.
I also project this game to be a higher paced, higher scoring game than does the consensus. I'm projecting about 73 possessions in this game, and a final score of FAU 82 - KSU 80
My Pick: FAU ML (+115), AND the total OVER 144
Follow on twitter! @TWBets_
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