Pick #9:  Philadelphia 76ers (+5) -114 on FanDuel

What happens when an unstoppable force meets an unmovable object? We’re about to find out as the Philadelphia 76ers put their seven-game road winning streak up against the Golden State Warriors, who have won eight straight at home. But with Joel Embiid, James Harden, and Jalen McDaniels all officially listed as questionable, there’s significant uncertainty about who will actually be available for Friday’s contest, which is why you can get real value to take the 76ers' here.

So before diving into the matchups, what is there to be gleaned from injury reports and market movement? There was some concern when Embiid didn’t return to the bench after halftime of their thrashing of the Chicago Bulls on Wednesday night. But Doc Rivers was quick to quell any concern, saying that Joel not returning was precautionary due to calf tightness, and that he’s expected to play on Friday. 

While the situation was somewhat eyebrow-raising, I’m fairly confident Embiid suits up. The 76ers are just a half-game behind the Boston Celtics for the No. 2 seed in the East. Given the way the Celtics have handled them in the playoffs in recent years, Philadelphia is desperate to have home court advantage for any potential Celtics series. If the 76ers weren’t still in the thick of the playoff battle against Boston, perhaps they would take the hit to get Embiid some rest, but as it is, I expect him to play.

With that out of the way, what does an Embiid-led 76ers team look like going against the Warriors at this stage of the season? While very few teams have a matchup that you feel comfortable with hanging with Embiid for 48 minutes, the Warriors are at a bigger disadvantage than most. 

Kevon Looney has had a quietly brilliant season (in a workmanlike kind of way), but sticking with Embiid is a task a tier (or two) above his paygrade. Draymond Green will face off with Embiid in spurts, but Joel’s leveled up since Green's success against Embiid earlier in his career, and his ability as a passer and the new depth of the 76ers’ shooting leave the Warriors unable to aggressively help to force Embiid into mistakes.

Embiid is also now working harder than ever to find his teammates in transition as well, and opposing teams are adopting the same strategy they do with Giannis Antetokounmpo, forming a wall to deny him the rim. But Embiid’s playmaking, while not quite to the level of the “Greek Freak,” has progressed to the point where this is a dilemma for the defense. Embiid spent large stretches of the first half against Chicago making the simple pass to the wing in transition and watching as Tobias Harris or another Sixer got a wide-open shot.

The Warriors also commit the cardinal sin for a team playing against Harden and Embiid: they’re foul prone. Golden State commits the third most fouls per game at 21.6, and the 76ers are the best in the business at punishing any lack of discipline on that front. Even at home, when they play drastically better, the Warriors are still in the Top 10 in fouls committed.

Another issue facing the Warriors is that they’re going to have a hard time hiding Jordan Poole. Poole is in the midst of a disappointing offensive season, but it’s his complete inability on the other end of the court that’s most concerning for his long-term future. It goes forgotten that he was basically played off the court at the end of the NBA Finals. Tyrese Maxey should prove a tough cover.

Despite all that, the 76ers plus the points looks to be as automatic as they come (inFamous last words, I know), so we're not going to pass this opportunity up.  Take the offered points, and dance a jig when it hits tonight.