Pick #8 -OKC Thunder +4.5 (-110) on FanDuel

The Lakers are managing to stick around in the playoff race even without LeBron James in the lineup. Since James injured his right foot on February 26, Los Angeles has managed to put up a 7-5 record. While Lakers fans will still hope that James can make it back for the end of the regular season and a potential play-in tournament, the team is keeping its head above water for now.

The Thunder aren’t waiting on their superstar to get back on the court. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is scoring 31.4 ppg this season and continues to enjoy a breakout season. In the month of March, Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 33.9 points on 54.4% shooting, and has hit the 30-point mark in seven of his eight games. 

Those efforts have helped Oklahoma City get back into the playoff race. While they lost 127-105 at the Los Angeles Clippers on Thursday, the Thunder have won eight of 11 to put themselves on the edge of a playoff berth. With nine games remaining in the regular season, they could easily land anywhere from safely in the playoffs to outside the play-in tournament.

While both teams are playing reasonably well heading into tonight’s game, Oklahoma City is certainly the hotter team. They’ve also arguably been the better team overall this season, posting a +1.2 point differential on the year, while Los Angeles has hovered right around an even zero. These two teams profile very similarly on offense and defense, and both like to play at a quick pace. 

It’s been clear that these teams have some level of comfort against each other in the first two matchups. Both teams have won on the road in the other’s building, and both games were close. The Thunder beat the Lakers by three in Los Angeles back on February 7, then the Lakers returned the favor without LeBron in the lineup, posting a 123-117 win on March 1 in Oklahoma City.

Regardless of how the Lakers have managed without their star, we have to assume that the Lakers are taking at least a slight hit with James off the court. There’s also the fact that Los Angeles is one of the few NBA teams without a dramatic home/away split this year. The Lakers are just 20-17 at home, hardly what you’d expect even from a .500 team in today’s league.

Yet, despite the way Oklahoma City is playing, the LeBron injury, and the two close games these teams have already put in the books, the market is making the Lakers a fairly significant favorite. My guess is that this is due to the fact that the Thunder are playing a back-to-back in LA, but the team has been in the city all week, and shouldn’t be too impacted by the consecutive games — especially with Gilgeous-Alexander only playing 27 minutes last night.

This game feels pretty close to a tossup to me, yet we can get Oklahoma City +4.5.  Easy Decision: I’m taking the Thunder plus those aforementioned points.