Tyler Toffoli's consistent performance this season and favorable matchup against the Vegas Knights make the over on 2.5 shots on goal a solid bet for tonight's NHL game.

Bet: Tyler Toffoli over 2.5 Shots on Goal + Calgary/Vegas over 4.5 Total Goals -119 FD

When it comes to NHL betting, finding those hidden gems and key stats can be the difference between winning and losing. That's why we're zeroing in on Calgary Flames' Tyler Toffoli and his shots on goal prop for tonight's game against the Vegas Knights. With a line of 2.5, we're backing the over, and here's why.

First, let's break down Toffoli's season-long performance. Averaging 3.18 shots on goal this season, he's been a consistent force on the ice. At home, Toffoli's numbers climb even higher, with an average of 3.35 shots on goal. 

But let's not stop there. Over the last 20 games, Toffoli has been on an absolute tear, averaging 3.55 shots on goal and surpassing 2.5 shots on goal in 15 games. In the last 10 games, he's maintained a strong 3.5 shots on goal average and has had more than 2.5 shots on goal in 6 games. Even more recently, in the last 5 games, Toffoli's been averaging 3.4 shots on goal and has had more than 2.5 shots on goal in 3 games. The trend is clear: Toffoli is heating up at just the right time.

Now, let's talk about tonight's matchup against the Vegas Knights. In 3 games against Vegas this season, Toffoli has been on fire, averaging a whopping 4.0 shots on goal. 

A strong correlation for tonight's SGP is how well the over 4.5 total goals line has performed when Toffoli's hit's 3+ shots on goal.  This season the Flames games have gone over 4.5 in 83% of the games when Toffoli hits 3+ giving this some really good value compared to the expected win rate on these odds.

So there you have it, folks. If you're looking for a bet that combines data-driven analysis with a bit of gut feeling, take the over on 2.5 shots on goal for Tyler Toffoli in tonight's Calgary Flames vs. Vegas Knights matchup. It's not a guarantee, but with Toffoli's track record and the Knights' tendency to let up shots, it's a bet that's hard to pass up. Happy betting and let's hope Toffoli brings his A-game tonight!