Pick #26: UCLA (-1.5) (-108) on FanDuel

The Gonzaga Bulldogs were cast by the wayside early this season as not being up to its typical snuff after a relatively rough start to the year. The Zags lost to Texas, Purdue, and Baylor in the non-conference portion of the schedule to put a damper on this year’s prospects early on in the season.

In retrospect, those losses were nothing for the Zags to hand their heads about considering all three schools ended up with a Top 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament, although the margin of error (19 points against the Longhorns, 18 points against the Boilermakers) left reason for concern. 

Mark Few’s side basically did what it normally does in WCC play — dominate — albeit to a lesser extent. Usually, the Zags blow through their conference opponents with ease, but early warning signs were given merit after an inexplicable loss to Loyola Marymount in mid-January. A loss to Saint Mary’s in early January cast doubt on whether Gonzaga’s supremacy would continue.

The Zags put those concerns to bed by righting the ship after that initial Saint Mary’s loss, winning seven straight games to close the regular season and two more in the conference tournament en route to sweeping the WCC regular season and tournament titles. 

After starting slowly against Grand Canyon in Round 1, the Zags pulled away on a torrid second-half stretch to win 82-70. Similarly, Gonzaga fell behind to TCU in Round 2, trailing 38-33 before turning on the jets in the second half en route to an 84-81 win. Few’s squad has won 11 straight games entering Thursday’s clash with the Bruins. 

The UCLA Bruins were head and shoulders the best team in the Pac-12 this season, dominating the regular season with an 18-2 record. Mick Cronin’s side would lose to Arizona in the Pac-12 title game, although the Bruins were massively shorthanded for that contest.

The Bruins had arguably the most impressive performance of any team in Round 1, dispatching UNC Asheville with gusto in an 86-53 win. They then defeated Northwestern 68-63 in a game that was close in the second half but ultimately was a pretty decisive final few minutes.

The biggest storyline surrounding the Bruins has unfortunately been the fact they've been super shorthanded. Pac-12 DPOY Jaylen Clark is out with an Achilles injury suffered in the regular season finale, while star big man Adem Bona missed Round 1 and wasn't at 100% when he played in Round 2. Fifth-year wing David Singleton also went down in agony with an ankle injury against Northwestern but is expected to play.

I think Clark's game is vastly underrated by those not staying up to watch West Coast hoops and his defensive abilities would be critical in this matchup against a Zaga teams that leads the nation in offensive efficiency and loves to push the pace.

If UCLA is fully healthy, it’d be my pick to win the National Championship. Even without Clark, both Bona and Singleton are expected to give things a go on Thursday and I think that has to make the Bruins the favorite. They have plenty of experience with seniors Jaime Jaquez and Tyger Campbell providing a steady presence leading the way and enough talent with Amari Bailey and Bona being arguably the top freshman duo in the country. 

They get it done on both ends of the court, ranking 21st in offensive efficiency and second in defensive efficiency and while Gonzaga may be elite offensively, the defense is a notable issue at 75th in efficiency. Allowing both Grand Canyon and TCU to score repeatedly leads me to believe that UCLA will keep pace on offense while holding a massive advantage on the defensive end. 

While UCLA is a profitable 8-3 ATS in its last 11 NCAA Tournament games, the Zags have struggled in March. Gonzaga is 0-7 ATS in its last seven NCAA Tournament games and I’ll back that trend to continue in the Sweet 16.