PINE March Madness - UCONN vs. Arkansas
Pick #24 - UCONN ML (-192) on FanDuel
The Razorbacks knocked off the defending champs despite allowing them to shoot 48% from the floor and shooting 41% themselves (including just 20% from beyond the arc). They trailed by as many as 12 points in the second half and generating extra chances from 14 offensive rebounds was their key to victory.
It was a shocking outcome for Arkansas, a team who had struggled with closing out games all season and managed to win despite not getting a single point from star freshman Nick Smith Jr.
Although there should be some positive regression from Smith, the Razorbacks won't have anywhere near as much success on the glass. After all, they benefitted from Kansas' top big K.J. Adams sitting out with foul trouble for almost 10 minutes while UConn is second in the country in rebound rate (56.8%).
Arkansas shoots poorly from beyond the arc and mid-range and is at its best when it can run the floor on the fastbreak and attack the rim. Unfortunately, the Huskies are 35th in the country in transition defense and 13th in defensive efficiency at the rim per ShotQualityBets.
On the other side of the ball, the Huskies have the ball movement, spacing, and offensive versatility to find the holes in Arkansas' typically stingy defense. In particular, the Razorbacks sit outside the Top 140 when it comes to defending cuts as well as pick and rolls, while UConn is in the Top 50 in offensive efficiency when running both plays.
It's also interesting that KenPom (which typically influences betting odds) has UConn projected to win this contest by six points while the line sits at -3.5. Factors like injuries, lineup changes, travel, and recent form can affect the odds but in this matchup, none of those lean toward the underdogs.
Pick #24 - UCONN ML (-192) on FanDuel
The Razorbacks knocked off the defending champs despite allowing them to shoot 48% from the floor and shooting 41% themselves (including just 20% from beyond the arc). They trailed by as many as 12 points in the second half and generating extra chances from 14 offensive rebounds was their key to victory.
It was a shocking outcome for Arkansas, a team who had struggled with closing out games all season and managed to win despite not getting a single point from star freshman Nick Smith Jr.
Although there should be some positive regression from Smith, the Razorbacks won't have anywhere near as much success on the glass. After all, they benefitted from Kansas' top big K.J. Adams sitting out with foul trouble for almost 10 minutes while UConn is second in the country in rebound rate (56.8%).
Arkansas shoots poorly from beyond the arc and mid-range and is at its best when it can run the floor on the fastbreak and attack the rim. Unfortunately, the Huskies are 35th in the country in transition defense and 13th in defensive efficiency at the rim per ShotQualityBets.
On the other side of the ball, the Huskies have the ball movement, spacing, and offensive versatility to find the holes in Arkansas' typically stingy defense. In particular, the Razorbacks sit outside the Top 140 when it comes to defending cuts as well as pick and rolls, while UConn is in the Top 50 in offensive efficiency when running both plays.
It's also interesting that KenPom (which typically influences betting odds) has UConn projected to win this contest by six points while the line sits at -3.5. Factors like injuries, lineup changes, travel, and recent form can affect the odds but in this matchup, none of those lean toward the underdogs.
Let us know by commenting below 👇