PINE March Madness - Michigan State vs. Kansas State
Pick #23 - OVER 137.5 (-115) on FanDuel
I have long admired Tyson Walker, and he should have a favorable matchup here. Walker's play has been dynamic, and he's coming into this game coming off a 23-point performance for Michigan State.
On the other side of the ball, you have Markquis Nowell. Kansas State has allowed him to take control of its offense, which propelled him to a 27-point performance in the win over Kentucky.
My projections have this game as a virtual coin-flip, with Kansas State edging out Michigan State by a single point. My forecasts also have an expectation that both teams get close to or even eclipse 70 points, putting this total at 143. That's nearly a 6-point difference against the number and one I'll happily act on.
While Michigan State stifled Marquette's ball screen actions, I'm not sure that will be replicated here. Watching that game, I felt a general softness to the Golden Eagles' play and hesitation of the moment.
You won't get that from the Cats, who just came off a win against a blueblood in Kentucky. Kansas State will attack a Michigan State defense that is allowing 0.79 points per possession and is just average at defending the pick-and-roll this season.
On the other side of the ball, I expect Michigan State to have a host of successes attacking Kansas State in transition. Sparty doesn't want to play at a quick tempo, but they'll look for those chances, and if they are there, we'll happily take them. I expect them to succeed against a Kansas State defense that has allowed over a point per possession in transition and was one of the worst in the Big 12.
Take the Over in this spot. Each team boasts guards that should be able to regularly score in the halfcourt, and this game will likely have a faster pace than expected. Even after an extremely slow start in the first half between Kansas State and Kentucky, the game ultimately went over the pregame number.
I could see a similar scenario unfolding here.
Pick #23 - OVER 137.5 (-115) on FanDuel
I have long admired Tyson Walker, and he should have a favorable matchup here. Walker's play has been dynamic, and he's coming into this game coming off a 23-point performance for Michigan State.
On the other side of the ball, you have Markquis Nowell. Kansas State has allowed him to take control of its offense, which propelled him to a 27-point performance in the win over Kentucky.
My projections have this game as a virtual coin-flip, with Kansas State edging out Michigan State by a single point. My forecasts also have an expectation that both teams get close to or even eclipse 70 points, putting this total at 143. That's nearly a 6-point difference against the number and one I'll happily act on.
While Michigan State stifled Marquette's ball screen actions, I'm not sure that will be replicated here. Watching that game, I felt a general softness to the Golden Eagles' play and hesitation of the moment.
You won't get that from the Cats, who just came off a win against a blueblood in Kentucky. Kansas State will attack a Michigan State defense that is allowing 0.79 points per possession and is just average at defending the pick-and-roll this season.
On the other side of the ball, I expect Michigan State to have a host of successes attacking Kansas State in transition. Sparty doesn't want to play at a quick tempo, but they'll look for those chances, and if they are there, we'll happily take them. I expect them to succeed against a Kansas State defense that has allowed over a point per possession in transition and was one of the worst in the Big 12.
Take the Over in this spot. Each team boasts guards that should be able to regularly score in the halfcourt, and this game will likely have a faster pace than expected. Even after an extremely slow start in the first half between Kansas State and Kentucky, the game ultimately went over the pregame number.
I could see a similar scenario unfolding here.
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