Vindication! Yesterday felt good. MPJ had 0 rebounds going into half-time and ended the game with a mere 4, way below the moved up line of 8.5! I feel like I really got one over the odds-makers!! That brings my record to 14-4 and per-bet ROI to 41%. Today, I'm liking the under for Paul George's points, currently set at 26.5 (-134).
Paul George has been averaging 23.3 points per game this season, and he's been trending down, so that is reason enough to seriously consider the under here, but let's dig in deeper.
The overall trends are looking good to me, but there was a pocket of killer games between April 6 and April 23 where Paul George was averaging 33 points per game (circled below).
Those numbers gave me a little pause, and I wanted to get to the bottom of what was going on there. After doing some digging, I realized that period was mainly during a long stretch where Kawhi Leonard was out.
So I filtered to get only the games where both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George were playing and noticed that Paul George's average points per game was even worse, about 22, and trending down to about 20.
The downward trend was also interesting to me. On April 26, Paul George scored 9 points, and after that has not had one game where he's scored over 26.5 points per game. After doing some more research, it looks like he rolled his ankle during the game on April 26th.
Looking at post injury games with Kawhi Leonard, Paul George is averaging just over 20 points per game.
So he's what we have -- Of the 46 games this season he's played with Kawhi Leonard, he's scored below 26.5 points in 35 of them (76%), 17 of the last 20 games (85%), 8 of the last 10 (80%), and all 7 since his injury (100%).
Now we've already had one game against Dallas, and he scored 23 points. But let's take a look at how shooting guards who average more than 30 minutes do against various opponents.
Dallas is in the bottom 8 here, but the spread amongst the middle group is so small, I don't think this is a huge factor. We can discount our chances a bit to be safe though.
At a money line of -134, that gives us implied odds of 55.36%. All things considered, I think there's a 70+% chance Paul George scores below 26.5 points tonight.
Wish me luck!
Vindication! Yesterday felt good. MPJ had 0 rebounds going into half-time and ended the game with a mere 4, way below the moved up line of 8.5! I feel like I really got one over the odds-makers!! That brings my record to 14-4 and per-bet ROI to 41%. Today, I'm liking the under for Paul George's points, currently set at 26.5 (-134).
Paul George has been averaging 23.3 points per game this season, and he's been trending down, so that is reason enough to seriously consider the under here, but let's dig in deeper.
The overall trends are looking good to me, but there was a pocket of killer games between April 6 and April 23 where Paul George was averaging 33 points per game (circled below).
Those numbers gave me a little pause, and I wanted to get to the bottom of what was going on there. After doing some digging, I realized that period was mainly during a long stretch where Kawhi Leonard was out.
So I filtered to get only the games where both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George were playing and noticed that Paul George's average points per game was even worse, about 22, and trending down to about 20.
The downward trend was also interesting to me. On April 26, Paul George scored 9 points, and after that has not had one game where he's scored over 26.5 points per game. After doing some more research, it looks like he rolled his ankle during the game on April 26th.
Looking at post injury games with Kawhi Leonard, Paul George is averaging just over 20 points per game.
So he's what we have -- Of the 46 games this season he's played with Kawhi Leonard, he's scored below 26.5 points in 35 of them (76%), 17 of the last 20 games (85%), 8 of the last 10 (80%), and all 7 since his injury (100%).
Now we've already had one game against Dallas, and he scored 23 points. But let's take a look at how shooting guards who average more than 30 minutes do against various opponents.
Dallas is in the bottom 8 here, but the spread amongst the middle group is so small, I don't think this is a huge factor. We can discount our chances a bit to be safe though.
At a money line of -134, that gives us implied odds of 55.36%. All things considered, I think there's a 70+% chance Paul George scores below 26.5 points tonight.
Wish me luck!
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