1U Donovan Mitchell (CLE) over 25.5 points (-111) available at Caesars sportsbook at time of initial post to Twitter. Playable to -125 odds.
Donovan Mitchell was ejected from the Cavaliers' last game and fined $20,000 for his altercation with Dillon Brooks. While he rightfully stood up for himself after a cheap shot, leaving his team hanging for the rest of the game is something that likely didn't sit well with the all-star guard. After an otherworldly start to the season Mitchell has cooled off dramatically of late, falling under this line in 6 consecutive games, but there are some easy explanations for some of those performances. Three of those games resulted in 22 or fewer minutes (due to ejection, blowout, and injury.) One of the misses was a 24-point game against the Knicks when he shot just 9/24. The other two misses were in tougher matchups against the Timberwolves and Heat. This spot against the Pacers provides what I believe to be a ripe bounce back opportunity and is a matchup he has taken advantage of already this season.
In the first two matchups this season Mitchell was posted at a 27.5 line and we backed him both times as he scored 28 and 41 points. While he isn't in the form he was to begin the season, his lines have deflated as a result and 25.5 is just too low of a number for him in this matchup. Over the course of the season the Pacers have allowed the 2nd most PPG to opposing shooting guards. They rank 22nd in DRTG while allowing over 50 PPG in the paint, and Mitchell shot 60% in the paint in the first 2 matchups. Indiana is weak at defending the 3-point arc, allowing the 5th highest 3P% and ranking 17th percentile vs spot-up shooters. Mitchell leads Cleveland in spot-up possessions per game while ranking 71st percentile in efficiency. He is also an elite pull-up shooter which is huge against Indiana when Turner is in drop coverage. He averages the 7th most pull-up FGA per game in the league while having the 2nd highest EFG% among those top 7 voluminous players.
Indiana ranks 3rd in pace of play this season, providing a massive pace-up spot for the last-ranked Cavs, and allow the 8th most PPG in transition. Mitchell thrives in faster paced games and is lethal in the open court, leading the team in transition possessions per game and scoring a career-high 12.7% of his points on fast breaks. He is one of the more efficient scorers as a PnR ball-handler and is lethal in isolation situations as well. Mitchell played 37 minutes in his last full game and averages 35.5 MPG on the season. In games with 30 or more minutes this season Spida has cleared this line 67% of the time while averaging 30 PPG. Despite his least efficient month of the season that included multiple games that he left early, Mitchell still averaged over this line during January, and I expect positive regression in his shooting numbers. Cleveland has also struggled on the road this season and with Haliburton healthy for the Pacers this game should remain competitive.
1U Donovan Mitchell (CLE) over 25.5 points (-111) available at Caesars sportsbook at time of initial post to Twitter. Playable to -125 odds.
Donovan Mitchell was ejected from the Cavaliers' last game and fined $20,000 for his altercation with Dillon Brooks. While he rightfully stood up for himself after a cheap shot, leaving his team hanging for the rest of the game is something that likely didn't sit well with the all-star guard. After an otherworldly start to the season Mitchell has cooled off dramatically of late, falling under this line in 6 consecutive games, but there are some easy explanations for some of those performances. Three of those games resulted in 22 or fewer minutes (due to ejection, blowout, and injury.) One of the misses was a 24-point game against the Knicks when he shot just 9/24. The other two misses were in tougher matchups against the Timberwolves and Heat. This spot against the Pacers provides what I believe to be a ripe bounce back opportunity and is a matchup he has taken advantage of already this season.
In the first two matchups this season Mitchell was posted at a 27.5 line and we backed him both times as he scored 28 and 41 points. While he isn't in the form he was to begin the season, his lines have deflated as a result and 25.5 is just too low of a number for him in this matchup. Over the course of the season the Pacers have allowed the 2nd most PPG to opposing shooting guards. They rank 22nd in DRTG while allowing over 50 PPG in the paint, and Mitchell shot 60% in the paint in the first 2 matchups. Indiana is weak at defending the 3-point arc, allowing the 5th highest 3P% and ranking 17th percentile vs spot-up shooters. Mitchell leads Cleveland in spot-up possessions per game while ranking 71st percentile in efficiency. He is also an elite pull-up shooter which is huge against Indiana when Turner is in drop coverage. He averages the 7th most pull-up FGA per game in the league while having the 2nd highest EFG% among those top 7 voluminous players.
Indiana ranks 3rd in pace of play this season, providing a massive pace-up spot for the last-ranked Cavs, and allow the 8th most PPG in transition. Mitchell thrives in faster paced games and is lethal in the open court, leading the team in transition possessions per game and scoring a career-high 12.7% of his points on fast breaks. He is one of the more efficient scorers as a PnR ball-handler and is lethal in isolation situations as well. Mitchell played 37 minutes in his last full game and averages 35.5 MPG on the season. In games with 30 or more minutes this season Spida has cleared this line 67% of the time while averaging 30 PPG. Despite his least efficient month of the season that included multiple games that he left early, Mitchell still averaged over this line during January, and I expect positive regression in his shooting numbers. Cleveland has also struggled on the road this season and with Haliburton healthy for the Pacers this game should remain competitive.
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