1U Deandre Ayton (PHX) over 19.5 points (-110) available at FanDuel sportsbook at time of initial post to Twitter. Playable to -125 odds.
We backed Deandre Ayton last week against the Spurs on this same line and he came through easily with a 3rd quarter cash. The talented Suns' big man is in the midst of a high-volume stretch where he has attempted 17 shots on average over his last 6 games, eclipsing this number in 4 of those games. The former first overall pick from Arizona has a 24.6% usage rate on the season but sees an increase in his role with Devin Booker off the floor as his usage rate jumps by 2%. When you take Booker, Landry Shamet, and Cameron Payne all off the floor (all of them are out tonight) Ayton has a 28.3% USG% in a 429-minute sample. Phoenix is a team that, as currently constructed, is lacking scoring firepower and as a result is leaning on Ayton more in the post and in the PnR, both areas where he excels and where Detroit struggles to defend.
On the season the Pistons have been very poor at guarding opposing big men. They have a youthful and inexperienced frontcourt that can often get into foul trouble and as a team they allow the 4th most FTA/game. When defending post-up possessions Detroit ranks dead-last in efficiency and it doesn't help that opponents run the 3rd most post-up possessions against them (they often allow players to cook against single coverage.) Ayton ranks 3rd in the NBA in post-up possessions per game. The big man is also elite as a roller, shooting 61.7% in those situations, and Chris Paul is still one of the best in the game at spoon-feeding easy buckets to his roll men in that action. Detroit ranks just 17th percentile when defending rollers in the PnR. The Pistons are also a weak defensive rebounding team, allowing the 5th highest opponent offensive rebound rate and the 4th most 2nd chance PPG. Ayton averages 2.8 offensive rebounds per game which is the 15th most in the NBA.
Ayton scores 73.9% of his points in the paint and the Pistons over the course of the season have allowed the 2nd most PITP at 55.4 per game. He also has some of the best touch from the mid-range area of all big men in the league and scores 11.8% of his points from there while the Pistons allow the 9th highest FG% from that area. Ayton already faced the Pistons this season, scoring a very efficient 28 points despite Devin Booker playing and leading the team in shots. Now, with more of a scoring burden on his shoulders, Ayton should see more volume in this spot and I expect him to take advantage. The Pistons have allowed opposing big men such as Claxton (27), Lopez (21), Valanciunas (33), Embiid (36), Harrell (20), and Randle (42) to utterly dominate in recent weeks. Phoenix played last night so there may initially be some worry of a back-to-back, but Detroit is also on 0 days rest so neither team had an advantage in that sense. Ayton has also been tremendous on the 2nd leg of back-to-backs this season, scoring 29, 20, 30, and 31 points in his last 4 games on 0 days rest. He also saw his minutes bounce back up to 35 last night in regulation so any training wheels from his time off are seemingly gone.
1U Deandre Ayton (PHX) over 19.5 points (-110) available at FanDuel sportsbook at time of initial post to Twitter. Playable to -125 odds.
We backed Deandre Ayton last week against the Spurs on this same line and he came through easily with a 3rd quarter cash. The talented Suns' big man is in the midst of a high-volume stretch where he has attempted 17 shots on average over his last 6 games, eclipsing this number in 4 of those games. The former first overall pick from Arizona has a 24.6% usage rate on the season but sees an increase in his role with Devin Booker off the floor as his usage rate jumps by 2%. When you take Booker, Landry Shamet, and Cameron Payne all off the floor (all of them are out tonight) Ayton has a 28.3% USG% in a 429-minute sample. Phoenix is a team that, as currently constructed, is lacking scoring firepower and as a result is leaning on Ayton more in the post and in the PnR, both areas where he excels and where Detroit struggles to defend.
On the season the Pistons have been very poor at guarding opposing big men. They have a youthful and inexperienced frontcourt that can often get into foul trouble and as a team they allow the 4th most FTA/game. When defending post-up possessions Detroit ranks dead-last in efficiency and it doesn't help that opponents run the 3rd most post-up possessions against them (they often allow players to cook against single coverage.) Ayton ranks 3rd in the NBA in post-up possessions per game. The big man is also elite as a roller, shooting 61.7% in those situations, and Chris Paul is still one of the best in the game at spoon-feeding easy buckets to his roll men in that action. Detroit ranks just 17th percentile when defending rollers in the PnR. The Pistons are also a weak defensive rebounding team, allowing the 5th highest opponent offensive rebound rate and the 4th most 2nd chance PPG. Ayton averages 2.8 offensive rebounds per game which is the 15th most in the NBA.
Ayton scores 73.9% of his points in the paint and the Pistons over the course of the season have allowed the 2nd most PITP at 55.4 per game. He also has some of the best touch from the mid-range area of all big men in the league and scores 11.8% of his points from there while the Pistons allow the 9th highest FG% from that area. Ayton already faced the Pistons this season, scoring a very efficient 28 points despite Devin Booker playing and leading the team in shots. Now, with more of a scoring burden on his shoulders, Ayton should see more volume in this spot and I expect him to take advantage. The Pistons have allowed opposing big men such as Claxton (27), Lopez (21), Valanciunas (33), Embiid (36), Harrell (20), and Randle (42) to utterly dominate in recent weeks. Phoenix played last night so there may initially be some worry of a back-to-back, but Detroit is also on 0 days rest so neither team had an advantage in that sense. Ayton has also been tremendous on the 2nd leg of back-to-backs this season, scoring 29, 20, 30, and 31 points in his last 4 games on 0 days rest. He also saw his minutes bounce back up to 35 last night in regulation so any training wheels from his time off are seemingly gone.
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