1U Domantas Sabonis (SAC) over 21.5 points (-115) available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of initial post to Twitter. Playable to -125 odds.
There are 3 main forces driving me to back Domantas Sabonis tonight: the absence of De'Aaron Fox, the likelihood of single coverage, and the fact this is his first game back in Indiana since being traded. Let's go in that order. The void left in the lineup due to Fox being out tonight is in the shape of 18 FGA and 24 PPG. The Kings offense uses Fox and Sabonis as the co-orchestrators of the offense but with Fox out Domas should have potential for a massive game tonight. With Fox off the floor this season Sabonis sees a 1.6% usage bump and in 3 full games without Fox this season he has recorded a 25% or higher usage rate twice. Those 3 games just so happened to be the 3 toughest scoring matchups for centers this season in the Heat, Cavs, and Mitchell Robinson-lead Knicks. Despite the toughest possible matchups, Sabonis still averaged 20 PPG in those 3 games and now draws a far more favorable spot on paper.
The Pacers have a defensive force of their own at the 5 in Myles Turner, but their defensive scheme puts a lot of pressure on him. He is tasked with manning a deep drop coverage and protecting the rim, and in matchups vs elite big men they are sending him out there in single coverage. We attacked the Pacers frontcourt last night with Anthony Davis and he utterly dominated, scoring 31 points. On the season the Pacers allow the 6th most PPG to centers and there are many areas in which I believe Sabonis can dominate. Indiana allows the 2nd highest opponent offensive rebound rate and Sabonis ranks 14th in offensive rebounds per game. He should be able to find some easy ones via 2nd chance opportunities and his strength advantage will also be huge when Turner is off the floor (Sabonis is projected to play 8-10 minutes more than Turner.) He ranks 77th percentile as a roll-man, 75th percentile in post-up situations, and is adept in the dribble-handoff game with numerous ways to create his own shot out of that action.
Sabonis enters this game coming off an aggressive 34-point outing against the Spurs and with single coverage and a scoring void in the lineup he should once again be aggressive tonight. I waited until the end, as it is the least important aspect, to discuss that this will be his first game back in Indiana since the trade for Tyrese Halibuton. I am not one who typically puts much stock into "revenge" narratives or anything, but I can only assume Sabonis will be fired up to return to the place where he was recently considered the face of the franchise. Sabonis plays better on the road this season as is and should be super-charged for a matchup against his former frontcourt partner. Despite the Kings fast pace of their own, the Pacers are actually a pace-up spot for Sacramento and more possessions is obviously an added benefit. With a close spread and high total Sabonis should see minutes in the mid 30's to low 40's and I love this spot given the game remains competitive.
1U Domantas Sabonis (SAC) over 21.5 points (-115) available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of initial post to Twitter. Playable to -125 odds.
There are 3 main forces driving me to back Domantas Sabonis tonight: the absence of De'Aaron Fox, the likelihood of single coverage, and the fact this is his first game back in Indiana since being traded. Let's go in that order. The void left in the lineup due to Fox being out tonight is in the shape of 18 FGA and 24 PPG. The Kings offense uses Fox and Sabonis as the co-orchestrators of the offense but with Fox out Domas should have potential for a massive game tonight. With Fox off the floor this season Sabonis sees a 1.6% usage bump and in 3 full games without Fox this season he has recorded a 25% or higher usage rate twice. Those 3 games just so happened to be the 3 toughest scoring matchups for centers this season in the Heat, Cavs, and Mitchell Robinson-lead Knicks. Despite the toughest possible matchups, Sabonis still averaged 20 PPG in those 3 games and now draws a far more favorable spot on paper.
The Pacers have a defensive force of their own at the 5 in Myles Turner, but their defensive scheme puts a lot of pressure on him. He is tasked with manning a deep drop coverage and protecting the rim, and in matchups vs elite big men they are sending him out there in single coverage. We attacked the Pacers frontcourt last night with Anthony Davis and he utterly dominated, scoring 31 points. On the season the Pacers allow the 6th most PPG to centers and there are many areas in which I believe Sabonis can dominate. Indiana allows the 2nd highest opponent offensive rebound rate and Sabonis ranks 14th in offensive rebounds per game. He should be able to find some easy ones via 2nd chance opportunities and his strength advantage will also be huge when Turner is off the floor (Sabonis is projected to play 8-10 minutes more than Turner.) He ranks 77th percentile as a roll-man, 75th percentile in post-up situations, and is adept in the dribble-handoff game with numerous ways to create his own shot out of that action.
Sabonis enters this game coming off an aggressive 34-point outing against the Spurs and with single coverage and a scoring void in the lineup he should once again be aggressive tonight. I waited until the end, as it is the least important aspect, to discuss that this will be his first game back in Indiana since the trade for Tyrese Halibuton. I am not one who typically puts much stock into "revenge" narratives or anything, but I can only assume Sabonis will be fired up to return to the place where he was recently considered the face of the franchise. Sabonis plays better on the road this season as is and should be super-charged for a matchup against his former frontcourt partner. Despite the Kings fast pace of their own, the Pacers are actually a pace-up spot for Sacramento and more possessions is obviously an added benefit. With a close spread and high total Sabonis should see minutes in the mid 30's to low 40's and I love this spot given the game remains competitive.
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