1U Anthony Davis (LAL) over 34.5 points + rebounds (-115) available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of initial post to Twitter. Also good with over 24.5 points.
This presents as an ideal spot to back Anthony Davis. Before injury the Lakers big man was playing MVP-caliber basketball. Excluding the game in Cleveland where he left with an illness 8 minutes in, Davis enjoyed a 13-game span before going down where he averaged 34.15 PPG and 14.85 RPG while clearing this line in each game. Included in that span was a game against these Pacers when Davis had 38 PR. His 28 rebound chances in that first matchup are extremely attractive given the Pacers have allowed the 4th most rebounds per game to opposing centers over the course of the season. Indiana allows the 4th most rebounds per game overall and allow the highest opponent offensive rebound percentage. Davis ranks 9th in the NBA in offensive rebounds per game while leading the NBA in putback PPG. He averages 11.9 rebounds per game with 12 or more rebounds in 61% of his games and has 15 or more rebounds on 9 separate occasions this season.
I love attacking him with the combo line as his rebounding ceiling is rather high in this matchup, but the real attraction for me is his scoring. Davis is averaging 26.8 points per game this season and had 27 in his last outing. What I love about AD this season is how he has played more like a true big man. His offensive rebounding is the best of his career, and he is taking fewer jumpers than in previous seasons. The result is his most efficient season to date from the field (58.3%) and a steadier nightly output. Davis is seeing his minutes hike back up after initially coming off the bench in his return to the team. Each of the last 2 games for Los Angeles have gone to overtime but Davis saw 34 and 37 minutes in those games which is nice to see for moving forward. This season when seeing between 20-38 minutes Davis has cleared this line in 14 of 23 games while averaging 39.3 PR/game.
The Pacers allow the 5th most FTA per game this season and Davis is scoring 24.6% of his points from the foul line, converting 82.5% of his 8.0 attempts per game. Indiana has struggled against centers this season, allowing the 6th most PPG to the position. They rank just 41st percentile defending rollers this season while allowing the 8th highest FG% on those shots. Davis is an 84th percentile scorer as a roller on the 3rd most possessions per game. Pacers are 35th percentile defending post-ups and will give AD single coverage with Myles Turner. While Turner is a plus defender and shot-blocker, single coverage from anyone on AD is not enough. Recent big men to produce against Indiana include Jaren Jackson Jr. (36 PR), Wendell Carter Jr. (28 in 28 min), Bismack Biyambo (28, Landale 20 in 17 min in same game), Okongwu (38), Plumlee (31), Nurkic (33), Giannis (53), Portis (32.)
This game environment is pristine with a total of 240.5 and a spread of only 2 points. With Tyrese Haliburton's return for the Pacers the home crowd should be fired up in Indiana and the team's competitiveness should return. I expect Davis to continue to see his minutes in regulation increase back to his season average and the assumption is we see around 34 minutes tonight. He has also been fantastic on the road this season, averaging 28.4 PPG and 11.2 RPG while shooting over 61% from the field. I love this spot for The Brow and will gladly buy in at his deflated line.
1U Anthony Davis (LAL) over 34.5 points + rebounds (-115) available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of initial post to Twitter. Also good with over 24.5 points.
This presents as an ideal spot to back Anthony Davis. Before injury the Lakers big man was playing MVP-caliber basketball. Excluding the game in Cleveland where he left with an illness 8 minutes in, Davis enjoyed a 13-game span before going down where he averaged 34.15 PPG and 14.85 RPG while clearing this line in each game. Included in that span was a game against these Pacers when Davis had 38 PR. His 28 rebound chances in that first matchup are extremely attractive given the Pacers have allowed the 4th most rebounds per game to opposing centers over the course of the season. Indiana allows the 4th most rebounds per game overall and allow the highest opponent offensive rebound percentage. Davis ranks 9th in the NBA in offensive rebounds per game while leading the NBA in putback PPG. He averages 11.9 rebounds per game with 12 or more rebounds in 61% of his games and has 15 or more rebounds on 9 separate occasions this season.
I love attacking him with the combo line as his rebounding ceiling is rather high in this matchup, but the real attraction for me is his scoring. Davis is averaging 26.8 points per game this season and had 27 in his last outing. What I love about AD this season is how he has played more like a true big man. His offensive rebounding is the best of his career, and he is taking fewer jumpers than in previous seasons. The result is his most efficient season to date from the field (58.3%) and a steadier nightly output. Davis is seeing his minutes hike back up after initially coming off the bench in his return to the team. Each of the last 2 games for Los Angeles have gone to overtime but Davis saw 34 and 37 minutes in those games which is nice to see for moving forward. This season when seeing between 20-38 minutes Davis has cleared this line in 14 of 23 games while averaging 39.3 PR/game.
The Pacers allow the 5th most FTA per game this season and Davis is scoring 24.6% of his points from the foul line, converting 82.5% of his 8.0 attempts per game. Indiana has struggled against centers this season, allowing the 6th most PPG to the position. They rank just 41st percentile defending rollers this season while allowing the 8th highest FG% on those shots. Davis is an 84th percentile scorer as a roller on the 3rd most possessions per game. Pacers are 35th percentile defending post-ups and will give AD single coverage with Myles Turner. While Turner is a plus defender and shot-blocker, single coverage from anyone on AD is not enough. Recent big men to produce against Indiana include Jaren Jackson Jr. (36 PR), Wendell Carter Jr. (28 in 28 min), Bismack Biyambo (28, Landale 20 in 17 min in same game), Okongwu (38), Plumlee (31), Nurkic (33), Giannis (53), Portis (32.)
This game environment is pristine with a total of 240.5 and a spread of only 2 points. With Tyrese Haliburton's return for the Pacers the home crowd should be fired up in Indiana and the team's competitiveness should return. I expect Davis to continue to see his minutes in regulation increase back to his season average and the assumption is we see around 34 minutes tonight. He has also been fantastic on the road this season, averaging 28.4 PPG and 11.2 RPG while shooting over 61% from the field. I love this spot for The Brow and will gladly buy in at his deflated line.
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