1U Bradley Beal (WAS) over 21.5 points (-106) available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of initial post to Twitter. Playable at 22.5. 

Bradley Beal finally saw his minutes increase during his last outing against the Pelicans when he played 33 minutes. The Wizards star had his minutes monitored in his first 4 games back from injury, playing under 30 minutes in 3 of them games with exactly 30 minutes in the 4th game. The former 3rd overall draft pick in the 2012 draft has averaged 36 minutes per game for each of the last 5 seasons and averaged 37.6 MPG in the month of November this season. He has the ability to play big minutes assuming he is rounding into healthier form, and when playing just 30 or more minutes in a game this season he has scored 22 or more points in 17/21 games averaging 25 PPG. In the last 3 games Beal has taken 17 shots in each game while recording usage rates of 32.9%, 28.6%, and 29.6%. That type of aggression should serve him well with increased minutes in the best possible matchup.

Washington will travel to San Antonio tonight to take on a Spurs team with the worst defense in basketball. San Antionio allows the most points per game this season at 122.2 and rank dead last in DRTG. The Spurs are the league's worst defense at defending the shooting guard position over the course of the year, allowing the most PPG. Focusing in on the last 15 games alone the Spurs have allowed the 2nd most PITP per game at 56.8. Beal leads Washington in drives per game (14.2) while ranking 14th in the league in PPG off those drives. During that 15-game span San Antionio has also allowed the most mid-range FGA (14.1) while allowing opponents to connect on the highest percentage of those shots (53.1%.) Beal ranks 9th in the NBA in mid-range FGA per game while shooting 50% from that area of the floor, the 2nd highest mark among those top 9 players behind only Kevin Durant. 61.7% of Beal's points are from either the mid-range area or inside the paint and with San Antonio leaking points to those spots Beal should have a field day.

Beal ranks 71st percentile as a PnR ball-handler while leading the team in possessions per game. San Antonio ranks just 7th percentile defending those ball-handlers, allowing the 2nd most PPG behind only Milwaukee. Beal leads Washington in isolation possessions per game and the Spurs are just 17th percentile defending 1-on-1 possessions. The Spurs rank dead last in efficiency when guarding spot-up's and while Beal isn't a volume spot-up shooter, he ranks 85th percentile on his 2.7 possessions per game and has connected on 43.8% of his 3PA this month. Beal also gets a ton of work in hand-offs, ranking 15th in possessions per game and ranks 86th percentile in efficiency, typically getting to his lethal midrange. The Spurs allow the 2nd most PPG off hand-offs while ranking worst in efficiency. Essentially everything that Beal does well is an area where the Spurs struggle and San Antonio also provides a pace-up spot for Washington. With a total of 241.5 we should have a high-scoring affair, and the spread of only 6 points with the favored side being the road team, Beal should see at least 32 minutes in this game tonight. Beal has also been better on the road this season, as seen in the chart below, averaging 3.3 more PPG and covering this line in 12 of 17 games overall (12 of 14 with 30+ minutes.)