Pick 3: Cole Caufield over 3.5 shots on goal (-120)

Good start to the week and only one hockey pick today with Caufield over.  Arizona gives up a lot of shots at home 26% more than expected according to my model.  Montreal also likely to give up shots on the road but only about 8% more, still enough to expect a lot of shots to make it to the goalies in this matchup. 

Caufield is the skater I like the most to go over his total.  His last 5 have been all over the place with his going over the total in 3 and getting 0 in the other two.  On the year he has been shooting at a pretty good clip and has a number of 5 and 6+ shot games.  I see him getting plenty of chances tonight and getting at least 4 pucks on net. 

Pick 3 going with Cole Caufield over 3.5 shots on goal (-120)