1U Tobias Harris (PHI) over 16.5 points (-115) available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing, fine with 17.5 at less juice.
Joel Embiid will miss his 2nd straight game and his 10th game of the season tonight which leaves a massive scoring void in the 76ers lineup. The big man averages the 2nd most PPG in the entire league and leaves behind a ton of usage to be soaked up. Tobias Harris has been a beneficiary of additional volume in the absence of Embiid the last 2 seasons and has another positive matchup this evening against the Bulls. In 20 games the last 2 years without Embiid, Harris has cleared this 16.5 line in 13 of those contests for an average of 19.9 PPG. That includes 6 straight games this season with 18 or more points for an average of 22.16 PPG on 18.16 FGA.
Regardless of who is playing around him Harris is averaging 16.5 PPG this season on 49.4/38.6/87.1 shooting splits and covering this line in 15 of his last 24 games overall. His 3-point volume is the highest it's been since joining Philadelphia at 5.2 attempts per game and he has been great as a spot-up shooter ranking 78th percentile on his 4.5 possessions per game. The Bulls struggle mightily defending the 3-point arc, allowing the 3rd most 3PM and 4th most spot-up PPG this season. 49.6% of Harris' points come within the paint where Chicago allows the 12th most FGA in the RA and the 14th highest FG% in the RA. Vucevic doesn't provide elite rim protection and Harris should be able to find some easy buckets at the cup. In the last 15 games the Bulls rank just 24th in DRTG and they have been gashed by opposing forwards all season long. They allow the 4th most PPG to opposing PF over the course of the season and we attacked them in their last game with Kevin Durant who poured in an efficient 44 points. Harris is no Durant, but we also only need 17 points and he is fully capable of providing that. Tobias had 7 consecutive seasons entering this year where his scoring average was above this line and without the high-usage Embiid he should see the necessary volume to get there.
The game has a spread of only 4.5 points and a total in the low 230's. The 76ers will naturally play at a faster pace with the absence of Embiid and the fact the Bulls are middle of the pack in pace. That is obviously a benefit in terms of more possessions but Harris has also seen an uptick in his percentage of points coming from fast breaks or off turnovers this season. The up-pace nature should suit him well and add a bit of a floor to his scoring output if he doesn't have to do it all in a half court setting. Alex Caruso is questionable for the Bulls but if he plays it would make the scoring matchup for James Harden a tougher one and potentially open up even more volume for Harris. Overall I love this spot for the 76ers wing and believe this is a great spot to attack.
1U Tobias Harris (PHI) over 16.5 points (-115) available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing, fine with 17.5 at less juice.
Joel Embiid will miss his 2nd straight game and his 10th game of the season tonight which leaves a massive scoring void in the 76ers lineup. The big man averages the 2nd most PPG in the entire league and leaves behind a ton of usage to be soaked up. Tobias Harris has been a beneficiary of additional volume in the absence of Embiid the last 2 seasons and has another positive matchup this evening against the Bulls. In 20 games the last 2 years without Embiid, Harris has cleared this 16.5 line in 13 of those contests for an average of 19.9 PPG. That includes 6 straight games this season with 18 or more points for an average of 22.16 PPG on 18.16 FGA.
Regardless of who is playing around him Harris is averaging 16.5 PPG this season on 49.4/38.6/87.1 shooting splits and covering this line in 15 of his last 24 games overall. His 3-point volume is the highest it's been since joining Philadelphia at 5.2 attempts per game and he has been great as a spot-up shooter ranking 78th percentile on his 4.5 possessions per game. The Bulls struggle mightily defending the 3-point arc, allowing the 3rd most 3PM and 4th most spot-up PPG this season. 49.6% of Harris' points come within the paint where Chicago allows the 12th most FGA in the RA and the 14th highest FG% in the RA. Vucevic doesn't provide elite rim protection and Harris should be able to find some easy buckets at the cup. In the last 15 games the Bulls rank just 24th in DRTG and they have been gashed by opposing forwards all season long. They allow the 4th most PPG to opposing PF over the course of the season and we attacked them in their last game with Kevin Durant who poured in an efficient 44 points. Harris is no Durant, but we also only need 17 points and he is fully capable of providing that. Tobias had 7 consecutive seasons entering this year where his scoring average was above this line and without the high-usage Embiid he should see the necessary volume to get there.
The game has a spread of only 4.5 points and a total in the low 230's. The 76ers will naturally play at a faster pace with the absence of Embiid and the fact the Bulls are middle of the pack in pace. That is obviously a benefit in terms of more possessions but Harris has also seen an uptick in his percentage of points coming from fast breaks or off turnovers this season. The up-pace nature should suit him well and add a bit of a floor to his scoring output if he doesn't have to do it all in a half court setting. Alex Caruso is questionable for the Bulls but if he plays it would make the scoring matchup for James Harden a tougher one and potentially open up even more volume for Harris. Overall I love this spot for the 76ers wing and believe this is a great spot to attack.
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